NBA games

DET @ MIA

NBA Kaseya Center ·Final
98–106
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DET3023261998
MIA28361428106

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 7 (MIA) / 8 (DET) games this season
DET away
home MIA
29% 71%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cade Cunningham S 35 24 8 6
Tim Hardaway Jr. S 33 20 0 1
Jaden Ivey S 32 18 4 1
Jalen Duren S 29 10 11 2
Tobias Harris S 37 9 10 1
Simone Fontecchio 22 6 4 0
Ronald Holland II 14 6 2 0
Malik Beasley 19 3 0 1
Isaiah Stewart 19 2 15 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jimmy Butler III S 34 23 4 7
Terry Rozier S 33 20 5 3
Tyler Herro S 33 19 4 6
Jaime Jaquez Jr. 33 12 9 0
Bam Adebayo S 35 12 10 4
Duncan Robinson 16 6 1 0
Nikola Jovic S 14 6 4 1
Haywood Highsmith 21 4 4 1
Thomas Bryant 13 4 2 0
Alec Burks 9 0 1 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Tobias Harris · Layup (2 pts) · 10:49 Q1
"Tobias Harris makes driving layup"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jaden Ivey DET
13%
2 Cade Cunningham DET
12%
3 Tyler Herro MIA
11%
4 Jalen Duren DET
10%
5 Tobias Harris DET
10%
6 Terry Rozier MIA
10%
7 Jimmy Butler III MIA
9%
8 Bam Adebayo MIA
9%
9 Nikola Jovic MIA
8%
10 Tim Hardaway Jr. DET
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
35%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
10%
Jumper
22%
Layup
27%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Cade Cunningham DET 21.3 5.8 6.8
2 Jaden Ivey DET 20.1 4.2 3.8
3 Tyler Herro MIA 17.3 4.2 4.1
4 Jimmy Butler III MIA 13.8 4.4 3.4
5 Terry Rozier MIA 12.6 4.7 3.4
6 Tobias Harris DET 12.3 5.2 2.5
7 Bam Adebayo MIA 11.8 5.9 2.0
8 Jalen Duren DET 11.1 8.5 2.5
9 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 9.2 4.6 3.4
10 Nikola Jovic MIA 8.7 2.8 2.5
11 Malik Beasley DET 8.5 2.8 1.4
12 Haywood Highsmith MIA 7.2 3.4 0.9
13 Ronald Holland II DET 6.9 3.8 1.7
14 Simone Fontecchio DET 6.7 2.6 0.9
15 Alec Burks MIA 6.5 2.6 1.3
16 Duncan Robinson MIA 6.3 1.8 1.8
17 Tim Hardaway Jr. DET 6.2 2.3 1.0
18 Isaiah Stewart DET 5.8 3.3 1.4
19 Cole Swider DET 5.7 2.6 0.9
20 Kel'el Ware MIA 5.2 3.7 0.5
21 Thomas Bryant MIA 4.7 2.3 1.0
22 Pelle Larsson MIA 4.7 1.2 1.2
23 Wendell Moore Jr. DET 4.3 2.5 0.6
24 Daniss Jenkins DET 4.2 1.9 1.3
25 Dru Smith MIA 4.0 1.8 2.1
26 Alondes Williams DET 3.9 1.6 2.3
27 Marcus Sasser DET 3.6 1.1 2.0
28 Paul Reed DET 3.0 3.2 1.4
29 Kevin Love MIA 2.8 0.6 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.