Monday, October 28, 2024

MIL @ BOS

NBA TD Garden ·Final

108–119

Final

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	T
MIL	29	27	26	26	108
BOS	28	25	37	29	119

Statlab take

baseline_gbm

Last 8 (BOS) / 7 (MIL) games this season

MIL away

home BOS

7% 93%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3PT	+/-
Damian Lillard S	36	33	7	7	7/15	2/8	-10
Giannis Antetokounmpo S	39	30	10	6	14/26	0/2	-19
Brook Lopez S	32	13	6	0	5/14	0/4	1
Gary Trent Jr. S	37	10	3	1	3/8	2/6	-21
Pat Connaughton	15	5	2	0	1/1	1/1	-2
Andre Jackson Jr.	9	4	3	2	2/3	0/1	4
Bobby Portis	19	4	6	0	2/6	0/1	-12
Taurean Prince S	32	3	4	1	1/4	1/3	-7
MarJon Beauchamp	3	3	0	0	1/2	1/2	4
AJ Green	3	3	1	0	1/2	1/2	4

Player	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3PT	+/-
Jaylen Brown S	38	30	6	4	10/19	0/4	8
Payton Pritchard	28	28	5	3	10/14	8/12	12
Jrue Holiday S	33	21	4	3	7/12	4/7	6
Jayson Tatum S	36	15	8	4	6/16	1/8	18
Derrick White S	34	13	3	8	5/13	3/10	10
Al Horford S	27	10	5	1	4/5	2/2	6
Jordan Walsh	13	2	3	0	1/3	0/2	10
Xavier Tillman	15	0	3	0	0/3	0/1	10
Drew Peterson	2	0	0	0	0/1	0/1	-5
Luke Kornet	10	0	1	1	0/0	0/0	-5

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80

Trained on 67736 player-games

Actual

Damian Lillard · Jumper (2 pts) · 10:23 Q1

"Damian Lillard makes 21-foot running pullup jump shot"

Most likely first scorer (top 10)

1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL

17%

2 Jaylen Brown BOS

11%

3 Jayson Tatum BOS

4 Damian Lillard MIL

5 Jrue Holiday BOS

6 Derrick White BOS

7 Brook Lopez MIL

8 Gary Trent Jr. MIL

9 Liam Robbins MIL

10 Al Horford BOS

Method (given top scorer)

3PT

Dunk

10%

Free Throw

59%

Jumper

12%

Layup

18%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)

#	Player	Team	Pred PTS	Pred REB	Pred AST	Actual PTS	Actual REB	Actual AST
1	Giannis Antetokounmpo	MIL	27.3	10.8	5.3	30	10	6
2	Jayson Tatum	BOS	25.0	6.5	5.9	15	8	4
3	Damian Lillard	MIL	22.3	4.7	6.1	33	7	7
4	Jaylen Brown	BOS	21.3	5.3	3.5	30	6	4
5	Derrick White	BOS	17.3	4.0	3.2	13	3	8
6	Bobby Portis	MIL	14.3	6.0	1.9	4	6	0
7	Payton Pritchard	BOS	13.4	3.3	4.5	28	5	3
8	Jrue Holiday	BOS	9.9	3.0	1.9	21	4	3
9	Brook Lopez	MIL	9.2	4.5	1.6	13	6	0
10	Gary Trent Jr.	MIL	9.0	2.0	1.4	10	3	1
11	Al Horford	BOS	8.7	3.7	1.9	10	5	1
12	Drew Peterson	BOS	7.4	2.1	0.9	0	0	0
13	Taurean Prince	MIL	6.9	4.3	1.4	3	4	1
14	Luke Kornet	BOS	6.3	5.4	1.5	0	1	1
15	Xavier Tillman	BOS	6.0	4.1	1.2	0	3	0
16	Pat Connaughton	MIL	5.9	2.7	1.5	5	2	0
17	Jordan Walsh	BOS	5.6	2.6	1.0	2	3	0
18	Neemias Queta	BOS	4.6	4.5	1.0	0	0	0
19	AJ Green	MIL	4.5	1.2	1.1	3	1	0
20	Delon Wright	MIL	4.2	1.4	1.2	0	0	1
21	Tyler Smith	MIL	3.8	3.2	0.5	0	1	0
22	Ryan Rollins	MIL	3.7	1.6	0.9	0	0	0
23	Jaden Springer	BOS	3.5	1.0	1.1	0	0	0
24	MarJon Beauchamp	MIL	3.4	1.7	0.7	3	0	0
25	Baylor Scheierman	BOS	3.1	1.3	0.5	0	0	0
26	Liam Robbins	MIL	3.0	2.2	0.9	—	—	—
27	Andre Jackson Jr.	MIL	2.7	2.0	0.7	4	3	2

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.