NBA games

WSH @ ATL

NBA State Farm Arena ·Final
121–119
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
WSH25293037121
ATL28332236119

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 7 (ATL) / 7 (WSH) games this season
WSH away
home ATL
56% 44%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jordan Poole S 33 26 1 5
Kyle Kuzma S 40 25 11 7
Corey Kispert 35 21 4 1
Bilal Coulibaly S 37 17 2 3
Bub Carrington 21 13 3 2
Alex Sarr S 27 7 9 1
Jonas Valanciunas S 22 7 9 4
Kyshawn George 22 3 2 1
Marvin Bagley III 4 2 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Johnson S 39 29 12 7
Clint Capela S 25 16 4 2
Larry Nance Jr. 23 15 3 4
Trae Young S 36 14 8 13
Garrison Mathews 24 14 0 2
Dyson Daniels S 36 11 3 1
David Roddy 19 9 6 2
Vit Krejci 10 7 0 0
Zaccharie Risacher S 26 4 3 1
Keaton Wallace 2 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Alex Sarr · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:48 Q1
"Alexandre Sarr makes 1-foot dunk (Kyle Kuzma assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Johnson ATL
13%
2 Jordan Poole WSH
11%
3 Kyle Kuzma WSH
11%
4 Alex Sarr WSH
11%
5 Clint Capela ATL
10%
6 Dyson Daniels ATL
9%
7 Trae Young ATL
9%
8 Bilal Coulibaly WSH
9%
9 Zaccharie Risacher ATL
8%
10 Bub Carrington WSH
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
31%
Dunk
11%
Free Throw
7%
Jumper
26%
Layup
25%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Trae Young ATL 25.0 3.8 11.6
2 Jalen Johnson ATL 16.9 8.5 3.2
3 Jordan Poole WSH 15.6 2.6 4.5
4 Onyeka Okongwu ATL 14.5 6.5 1.7
5 Bilal Coulibaly WSH 13.3 5.6 2.3
6 Dyson Daniels ATL 13.1 4.8 2.8
7 Kyle Kuzma WSH 12.1 4.8 2.8
8 Corey Kispert WSH 11.3 2.9 1.9
9 Zaccharie Risacher ATL 11.0 4.0 1.5
10 Alex Sarr WSH 10.3 5.6 1.9
11 David Roddy ATL 10.0 5.6 2.1
12 Jonas Valanciunas WSH 9.6 6.2 1.6
13 Bub Carrington WSH 8.8 3.9 2.1
14 Kyshawn George WSH 8.0 3.6 2.6
15 Garrison Mathews ATL 7.5 1.5 1.2
16 Marvin Bagley III WSH 7.4 5.1 1.5
17 Clint Capela ATL 7.1 7.6 1.3
18 Jared Butler WSH 6.8 1.7 3.5
19 Vit Krejci ATL 6.5 2.6 2.6
20 Larry Nance Jr. ATL 6.3 4.7 1.6
21 Patrick Baldwin Jr. WSH 5.4 2.4 0.8
22 Mouhamed Gueye ATL 4.4 2.9 1.0
23 Johnny Davis WSH 4.3 1.6 1.1
24 Keaton Wallace ATL 4.3 1.8 1.8
25 Richaun Holmes WSH 3.3 2.8 0.4
26 Anthony Gill WSH 3.1 0.7 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.