NBA games

IND @ ORL

NBA Kia Center ·Final
115–119
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
IND36233917115
ORL35362226119

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 6 (ORL) / 7 (IND) games this season
IND away
home ORL
35% 65%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Pascal Siakam S 34 26 9 4
Tyrese Haliburton S 35 19 9 10
Obi Toppin 14 14 2 0
Myles Turner S 26 13 5 0
Andrew Nembhard S 34 13 3 7
Aaron Nesmith S 31 10 4 1
Ben Sheppard 23 8 1 0
Isaiah Jackson 22 7 9 2
Bennedict Mathurin 14 5 2 0
Jarace Walker 2 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Paolo Banchero S 40 50 13 9
Jalen Suggs S 35 25 5 7
Moritz Wagner 16 14 4 1
Wendell Carter Jr. S 32 11 10 1
Anthony Black 31 8 3 3
Franz Wagner S 11 7 1 1
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope S 31 4 0 1
Gary Harris 26 0 3 1
Cole Anthony 11 0 5 1
Jett Howard 8 0 2 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jalen Suggs · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:27 Q1
"Jalen Suggs makes 26-foot three point jumper (Paolo Banchero assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Myles Turner IND
14%
2 Paolo Banchero ORL
13%
3 Franz Wagner ORL
12%
4 Tyrese Haliburton IND
10%
5 Pascal Siakam IND
10%
6 Jalen Suggs ORL
9%
7 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL
9%
8 Andrew Nembhard IND
8%
9 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ORL
7%
10 Aaron Nesmith IND
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
36%
Dunk
9%
Free Throw
4%
Jumper
17%
Layup
34%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Paolo Banchero ORL 20.9 6.7 5.0
2 Franz Wagner ORL 18.0 4.4 3.2
3 Myles Turner IND 16.3 6.3 2.3
4 Pascal Siakam IND 13.7 4.8 4.2
5 Bennedict Mathurin IND 13.5 3.0 2.1
6 Jalen Suggs ORL 12.8 4.6 3.3
7 Tyrese Haliburton IND 12.2 3.2 4.0
8 Anthony Black ORL 11.0 3.6 4.1
9 T.J. McConnell IND 8.8 2.6 3.7
10 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 8.4 9.2 1.8
11 Andrew Nembhard IND 8.1 2.3 3.5
12 Obi Toppin IND 7.7 2.6 1.7
13 Moritz Wagner ORL 7.6 3.2 1.2
14 Jarace Walker IND 7.4 2.9 1.6
15 Jett Howard ORL 7.2 1.4 0.9
16 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ORL 6.4 2.6 1.6
17 Aaron Nesmith IND 6.3 2.7 0.9
18 Ben Sheppard IND 6.1 1.8 1.1
19 Enrique Freeman IND 6.1 4.1 0.8
20 Gary Harris ORL 5.9 1.7 0.7
21 Cole Anthony ORL 5.9 1.8 2.5
22 Quenton Jackson IND 5.2 2.0 1.5
23 Cory Joseph ORL 4.6 1.4 1.2
24 Isaiah Jackson IND 4.4 3.5 0.7
25 Tristan da Silva ORL 3.8 1.6 0.5
26 Mac McClung ORL 3.8 1.8 1.2
27 Trevelin Queen ORL 3.2 1.6 0.8
28 Caleb Houstan ORL 3.2 1.4 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.