NBA games

LAC @ GS

NBA Chase Center ·Final
112104
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAC34252726112
GS34202525104

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 8 (GS) / 7 (LAC) games this season
LAC away
home GS
48% 52%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Ivica Zubac S 38 23 18 6
James Harden S 36 23 7 11
Norman Powell S 28 20 1 0
Derrick Jones Jr. S 35 18 4 0
Amir Coffey 20 8 3 0
Kevin Porter Jr. 17 7 0 3
Kris Dunn 28 6 9 4
Nicolas Batum 15 5 4 2
Terance Mann S 18 2 1 0
Kai Jones 5 0 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Andrew Wiggins S 29 29 3 0
Stephen Curry S 27 18 4 6
Jonathan Kuminga S 22 12 5 1
Kevon Looney 20 10 11 3
De'Anthony Melton 17 8 1 0
Buddy Hield 28 8 6 2
Gary Payton II 14 6 3 0
Trayce Jackson-Davis S 16 4 1 1
Brandin Podziemski 25 4 5 4
Moses Moody 12 3 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Stephen Curry · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:32 Q1
"Stephen Curry makes 24-foot three point jumper (Trayce Jackson-Davis assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 James Harden LAC
12%
2 Norman Powell LAC
11%
3 Ivica Zubac LAC
10%
4 Andrew Wiggins GS
10%
5 Stephen Curry GS
10%
6 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS
9%
7 Derrick Jones Jr. LAC
9%
8 Jonathan Kuminga GS
8%
9 Terance Mann LAC
7%
10 Bones Hyland LAC
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
23%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
10%
Jumper
46%
Layup
14%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 James Harden LAC 22.9 5.5 9.7
2 Norman Powell LAC 14.6 3.1 1.9
3 Stephen Curry GS 14.0 3.7 4.7
4 Buddy Hield GS 13.6 3.2 2.2
5 Moses Moody GS 13.6 3.5 1.8
6 Andrew Wiggins GS 12.9 5.2 2.6
7 Ivica Zubac LAC 11.9 7.9 1.8
8 Jonathan Kuminga GS 10.5 4.0 1.3
9 Brandin Podziemski GS 10.4 4.7 3.5
10 Derrick Jones Jr. LAC 8.8 2.5 1.0
11 Jordan Miller LAC 8.7 2.7 1.4
12 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS 8.6 6.4 2.1
13 De'Anthony Melton GS 8.3 2.7 3.3
14 Kevin Porter Jr. LAC 8.0 3.1 2.9
15 Amir Coffey LAC 7.5 2.3 1.0
16 Bones Hyland LAC 7.2 3.6 1.4
17 Lindy Waters III GS 6.9 2.9 0.7
18 Draymond Green GS 6.8 3.8 3.1
19 Kai Jones LAC 6.2 4.8 1.0
20 Terance Mann LAC 5.8 2.8 1.1
21 Kris Dunn LAC 5.6 3.1 1.1
22 Kyle Anderson GS 5.6 3.2 2.3
23 Kevon Looney GS 5.4 4.7 1.6
24 Kobe Brown LAC 4.9 4.9 1.6
25 Gary Payton II GS 4.6 2.2 1.6
26 Nicolas Batum LAC 3.3 2.9 1.3
27 Gui Santos GS 2.7 1.7 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.