NBA games

ATL @ OKC

NBA Paycom Center ·Final
104–128
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ATL27312818104
OKC23343239128

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 7 (OKC) / 6 (ATL) games this season
ATL away
home OKC
35% 65%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Trae Young S 37 24 1 8
Onyeka Okongwu 23 14 3 1
Garrison Mathews 22 14 2 2
Zaccharie Risacher S 27 13 6 2
David Roddy 20 10 5 3
Jalen Johnson S 29 7 9 2
Dyson Daniels S 34 7 8 2
Clint Capela S 22 6 10 2
Vit Krejci 20 5 4 2
Keaton Wallace 3 2 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 36 35 11 9
Chet Holmgren S 33 25 9 4
Jalen Williams S 33 20 9 5
Luguentz Dort S 29 16 2 1
Aaron Wiggins S 18 9 1 1
Isaiah Joe 16 6 1 1
Ousmane Dieng 8 5 1 0
Cason Wallace 23 5 4 1
Adam Flagler 2 3 1 0
Alex Caruso 21 2 2 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jalen Johnson · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:46 Q1
"Jalen Johnson makes 26-foot three point jumper (Dyson Daniels assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Chet Holmgren OKC
15%
2 Jalen Johnson ATL
12%
3 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
12%
4 Jalen Williams OKC
11%
5 Trae Young ATL
9%
6 Clint Capela ATL
9%
7 Dyson Daniels ATL
9%
8 Cason Wallace OKC
8%
9 Luguentz Dort OKC
7%
10 David Roddy ATL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
13%
Dunk
18%
Free Throw
9%
Jumper
24%
Layup
36%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Trae Young ATL 23.1 4.3 8.8
2 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 20.3 5.5 5.2
3 Jalen Williams OKC 17.4 4.5 3.5
4 Jalen Johnson ATL 16.8 8.3 2.8
5 Chet Holmgren OKC 16.0 8.7 2.1
6 Onyeka Okongwu ATL 14.1 7.5 1.7
7 Dyson Daniels ATL 12.6 4.5 2.8
8 Ousmane Dieng OKC 10.7 6.1 2.4
9 Zaccharie Risacher ATL 10.2 3.3 1.2
10 Aaron Wiggins OKC 9.4 4.3 2.0
11 Dillon Jones OKC 8.8 4.8 2.8
12 Ajay Mitchell OKC 8.6 2.3 2.0
13 David Roddy ATL 8.3 5.0 1.6
14 Isaiah Joe OKC 8.1 2.7 1.5
15 Cason Wallace OKC 8.1 4.8 1.8
16 Clint Capela ATL 6.7 7.0 1.1
17 Luguentz Dort OKC 6.7 3.1 1.4
18 Garrison Mathews ATL 6.1 1.5 0.9
19 Vit Krejci ATL 6.1 2.5 2.5
20 Alex Caruso OKC 5.7 3.0 2.2
21 Adam Flagler OKC 5.7 1.5 0.9
22 Larry Nance Jr. ATL 5.6 4.5 1.4
23 Alex Ducas OKC 4.9 1.7 0.7
24 Keaton Wallace ATL 3.3 1.2 1.8
25 Mouhamed Gueye ATL 3.2 2.8 0.8
26 Alex Reese OKC 2.5 1.6 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.