NBA games

NO @ POR

NBA Moda Center ·Final
103125
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NO25223026103
POR26333432125

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 6 (POR) / 5 (NO) games this season
NO away
home POR
29% 71%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
CJ McCollum S 36 27 4 3
Jordan Hawkins 34 17 7 3
Brandon Ingram S 32 14 8 6
Zion Williamson S 28 14 3 4
Herbert Jones S 31 12 2 1
Javonte Green 15 7 3 0
Yves Missi 20 5 3 2
Jose Alvarado 16 3 1 4
Daniel Theis S 17 2 4 1
Karlo Matkovic 4 2 3 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jerami Grant S 29 28 5 2
Anfernee Simons S 33 27 2 6
Deandre Ayton S 31 17 12 0
Toumani Camara S 34 12 3 4
Deni Avdija S 30 11 6 3
Scoot Henderson 30 9 5 7
Donovan Clingan 13 9 9 0
Jabari Walker 15 7 5 0
Kris Murray 15 5 1 1
Duop Reath 4 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Brandon Ingram · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:20 Q1
"Brandon Ingram makes pullup jump shot (Zion Williamson assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Brandon Ingram NO
22%
2 Zion Williamson NO
13%
3 Anfernee Simons POR
10%
4 Deni Avdija POR
9%
5 Jerami Grant POR
9%
6 Toumani Camara POR
8%
7 CJ McCollum NO
8%
8 Deandre Ayton POR
8%
9 Daniel Theis NO
7%
10 Herbert Jones NO
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
28%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
8%
Jumper
43%
Layup
15%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Brandon Ingram NO 23.9 6.5 3.7
2 Anfernee Simons POR 19.3 2.6 4.4
3 Scoot Henderson POR 18.7 4.1 4.9
4 Jerami Grant POR 17.3 3.3 2.6
5 Zion Williamson NO 16.5 7.7 3.7
6 Jordan Hawkins NO 16.3 4.1 1.4
7 CJ McCollum NO 13.9 3.9 2.6
8 Toumani Camara POR 13.0 6.0 2.8
9 Deni Avdija POR 11.2 5.5 3.9
10 Deandre Ayton POR 10.5 9.5 1.6
11 Rayan Rupert POR 9.7 3.5 1.7
12 Dalano Banton POR 8.1 2.7 3.1
13 Kris Murray POR 7.6 2.9 1.6
14 Donovan Clingan POR 7.1 8.9 1.1
15 Herbert Jones NO 6.8 3.0 1.6
16 Yves Missi NO 6.6 5.0 1.0
17 Jose Alvarado NO 6.3 2.3 3.3
18 Daniel Theis NO 6.0 3.0 1.6
19 Jabari Walker POR 5.8 3.5 1.0
20 Javonte Green NO 5.4 3.7 1.1
21 Duop Reath POR 4.6 1.9 0.9
22 Jeremiah Robinson-Earl NO 4.2 2.3 0.7
23 Antonio Reeves NO 2.7 1.2 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.