NBA games

MIL @ BKN

NBA Barclays Center ·Final
102–115
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIL25203324102
BKN27213532115

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 6 (BKN) / 6 (MIL) games this season
MIL away
home BKN
22% 78%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Giannis Antetokounmpo S 33 22 12 7
Damian Lillard S 32 21 4 4
Bobby Portis 27 16 10 2
Brook Lopez S 29 15 4 0
Gary Trent Jr. S 28 9 0 2
AJ Green 13 5 0 1
MarJon Beauchamp 3 4 0 0
Pat Connaughton 17 3 3 2
Taurean Prince S 34 3 7 1
AJ Johnson 3 2 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cam Thomas S 35 32 5 2
Dennis Schroder S 35 29 4 6
Cameron Johnson S 29 13 6 3
Noah Clowney 21 13 4 0
Nic Claxton 22 10 11 1
Ziaire Williams 18 7 4 0
Dorian Finney-Smith S 25 3 3 2
Jaylen Martin 2 3 0 0
Jalen Wilson 14 2 1 2
Ben Simmons S 24 2 6 6

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Brook Lopez · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:44 Q1
"Brook Lopez makes 12-foot hook shot (Giannis Antetokounmpo assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL
15%
2 Cam Thomas BKN
11%
3 Dennis Schroder BKN
10%
4 Damian Lillard MIL
10%
5 Cameron Johnson BKN
9%
6 Dorian Finney-Smith BKN
9%
7 Ben Simmons BKN
9%
8 Brook Lopez MIL
9%
9 Gary Trent Jr. MIL
9%
10 Taurean Prince MIL
9%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
15%
Free Throw
38%
Jumper
9%
Layup
37%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL 27.9 11.1 5.4
2 Damian Lillard MIL 23.3 4.9 6.5
3 Cam Thomas BKN 20.6 4.0 3.1
4 Cameron Johnson BKN 15.1 4.2 2.3
5 Dennis Schroder BKN 15.1 3.0 5.5
6 Bobby Portis MIL 15.0 5.4 1.9
7 Jalen Wilson BKN 10.7 3.1 2.2
8 Ziaire Williams BKN 10.4 5.9 1.8
9 Dorian Finney-Smith BKN 9.9 4.8 1.6
10 Gary Trent Jr. MIL 9.1 2.2 1.3
11 Noah Clowney BKN 8.8 4.6 1.9
12 Brook Lopez MIL 8.1 5.0 1.8
13 Taurean Prince MIL 7.6 4.3 1.5
14 Ben Simmons BKN 7.6 5.2 4.3
15 Shake Milton BKN 7.1 1.6 1.8
16 Keon Johnson BKN 6.5 3.2 1.6
17 Pat Connaughton MIL 6.3 2.8 1.6
18 AJ Johnson MIL 5.4 2.1 2.7
19 Jaylen Martin BKN 4.9 2.0 0.8
20 AJ Green MIL 4.7 1.6 1.2
21 Delon Wright MIL 4.3 1.4 1.3
22 Tyler Smith MIL 4.2 3.5 0.5
23 Ryan Rollins MIL 4.0 1.8 0.9
24 Tyrese Martin BKN 4.0 1.7 0.8
25 MarJon Beauchamp MIL 3.4 1.9 0.8
26 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 2.5 2.2 0.7
27 Dariq Whitehead BKN 2.4 0.9 0.4
28 Chris Livingston MIL 2.0 1.5 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.