NBA games

PHI @ IND

NBA Gainbridge Fieldhouse ·Final
118–114
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q5T
PHI2824272613118
IND233520279114

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 6 (IND) / 8 (PHI) games this season
PHI away
home IND
60% 40%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyrese Maxey S 48 45 4 4
Caleb Martin S 37 17 12 1
Eric Gordon 32 15 1 1
Kelly Oubre Jr. S 38 14 8 0
Andre Drummond S 37 9 17 1
KJ Martin 22 8 3 1
Kyle Lowry S 17 6 1 2
Jared McCain 17 4 2 1
Guerschon Yabusele 17 0 6 4
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyrese Haliburton S 37 22 4 2
Pascal Siakam S 40 17 5 6
Obi Toppin 23 15 4 1
Myles Turner S 37 14 4 2
T.J. McConnell 21 10 5 4
Andrew Nembhard S 31 10 2 8
Aaron Nesmith S 28 10 7 1
Ben Sheppard 15 6 2 2
Bennedict Mathurin 21 5 2 2
Jarace Walker 4 3 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Tyrese Haliburton · Layup (2 pts) · 11:43 Q1
"Tyrese Haliburton makes 4-foot two point shot (Myles Turner assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI
13%
2 Myles Turner IND
13%
3 Tyrese Maxey PHI
12%
4 Tyrese Haliburton IND
11%
5 Pascal Siakam IND
11%
6 Andre Drummond PHI
10%
7 Andrew Nembhard IND
9%
8 Kyle Lowry PHI
8%
9 Caleb Martin PHI
7%
10 Aaron Nesmith IND
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
28%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
14%
Jumper
24%
Layup
27%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI 17.7 3.6 1.9
2 Tyrese Maxey PHI 16.5 2.5 3.7
3 Myles Turner IND 16.4 6.5 2.6
4 Bennedict Mathurin IND 15.4 3.5 2.4
5 Pascal Siakam IND 12.6 4.8 3.9
6 Tyrese Haliburton IND 10.6 3.3 4.7
7 Caleb Martin PHI 9.5 4.0 2.0
8 Andre Drummond PHI 9.4 11.1 1.2
9 Jared McCain PHI 9.1 3.6 1.6
10 Jarace Walker IND 8.9 3.6 2.0
11 T.J. McConnell IND 8.9 2.7 4.0
12 Guerschon Yabusele PHI 8.7 4.5 1.9
13 Andrew Nembhard IND 7.8 2.4 3.3
14 Ricky Council IV PHI 7.2 2.7 1.2
15 KJ Martin PHI 7.0 3.6 1.4
16 Kyle Lowry PHI 6.8 2.4 3.3
17 Obi Toppin IND 6.8 2.7 1.7
18 Ben Sheppard IND 6.7 2.1 1.3
19 Enrique Freeman IND 6.4 4.4 1.0
20 Aaron Nesmith IND 6.1 2.3 1.0
21 Quenton Jackson IND 5.6 2.2 1.7
22 Eric Gordon PHI 5.4 1.4 0.9
23 Isaiah Jackson IND 5.1 4.0 1.0
24 Reggie Jackson PHI 4.4 1.4 1.5
25 Adem Bona PHI 3.0 2.3 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.