NBA games

SAC @ LAL

NBA crypto.com Arena ·Final
127–131
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SAC26343433127
LAL28362344131

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 8 (LAL) / 6 (SAC) games this season
SAC away
home LAL
48% 52%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Domantas Sabonis S 37 29 12 10
De'Aaron Fox S 41 28 5 10
DeMar DeRozan S 37 23 0 3
Malik Monk 28 14 3 5
Keegan Murray S 40 14 4 1
Kevin Huerter S 26 14 2 1
Trey Lyles 19 5 4 1
Jordan McLaughlin 3 0 0 0
Alex Len 9 0 2 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
LeBron James S 34 32 14 10
Anthony Davis S 38 31 9 2
Rui Hachimura S 37 18 9 3
D'Angelo Russell S 32 16 4 5
Austin Reaves S 34 16 7 6
Dalton Knecht 20 10 0 1
Jaxson Hayes 14 4 2 1
Max Christie 18 2 0 4
Gabe Vincent 13 2 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Domantas Sabonis · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:01 Q1
"Domantas Sabonis makes 1-foot dunk (De'Aaron Fox assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Domantas Sabonis SAC
13%
2 DeMar DeRozan SAC
11%
3 Rui Hachimura LAL
11%
4 LeBron James LAL
11%
5 Austin Reaves LAL
10%
6 De'Aaron Fox SAC
10%
7 Keegan Murray SAC
10%
8 D'Angelo Russell LAL
9%
9 Anthony Davis LAL
9%
10 Jordan McLaughlin SAC
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
15%
Dunk
15%
Free Throw
14%
Jumper
24%
Layup
32%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Anthony Davis LAL 26.0 10.5 3.2
2 Domantas Sabonis SAC 21.6 10.9 6.0
3 De'Aaron Fox SAC 18.5 5.1 5.2
4 Austin Reaves LAL 18.0 5.8 5.1
5 DeMar DeRozan SAC 17.7 4.0 3.8
6 LeBron James LAL 16.9 4.9 4.9
7 Keegan Murray SAC 15.4 5.0 2.0
8 Rui Hachimura LAL 14.4 6.7 1.7
9 Dalton Knecht LAL 14.2 3.6 2.3
10 D'Angelo Russell LAL 11.0 2.7 4.7
11 Malik Monk SAC 10.9 2.8 2.0
12 Jordan McLaughlin SAC 8.3 2.7 3.9
13 Keon Ellis SAC 7.0 2.4 1.9
14 Max Christie LAL 6.8 3.1 1.0
15 Jaxson Hayes LAL 6.5 5.9 1.5
16 Gabe Vincent LAL 5.9 1.4 1.1
17 Alex Len SAC 5.6 5.0 1.2
18 Bronny James LAL 3.4 1.5 0.5
19 Armel Traore LAL 3.3 3.3 0.3
20 Isaac Jones SAC 3.2 2.0 0.9
21 Colby Jones SAC 3.0 1.1 1.4
22 Maxwell Lewis LAL 2.9 1.4 0.4
23 Skal Labissiere SAC 1.8 0.8 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.