NBA games

DAL @ PHX

NBA Mortgage Matchup Center ·Final
102–114
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DAL26292522102
PHX28352823114

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 7 (PHX) / 5 (DAL) games this season
DAL away
home PHX
52% 48%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Luka Doncic S 39 40 10 4
Kyrie Irving S 39 22 2 5
Klay Thompson S 33 19 3 1
Daniel Gafford S 18 7 8 4
P.J. Washington S 35 5 6 0
Dereck Lively II 21 5 11 3
Naji Marshall 16 2 2 3
Maxi Kleber 16 2 1 2
Dwight Powell 1 0 0 0
Jaden Hardy 13 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kevin Durant S 39 31 9 2
Devin Booker S 37 21 1 5
Jusuf Nurkic S 30 18 14 1
Ryan Dunn S 21 13 1 1
Monte Morris 16 8 3 3
Tyus Jones S 31 8 5 7
Royce O'Neale 27 7 9 4
Collin Gillespie 3 3 0 0
Mason Plumlee 10 3 1 1
Damion Lee 18 2 3 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jusuf Nurkic · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:00 Q1
"Jusuf Nurkic makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Kevin Durant PHX
16%
2 Kyrie Irving DAL
15%
3 Devin Booker PHX
12%
4 Jusuf Nurkic PHX
12%
5 Daniel Gafford DAL
12%
6 P.J. Washington DAL
12%
7 Tyus Jones PHX
11%
8 Klay Thompson DAL
8%
9 Dwight Powell DAL
0%
10 Naji Marshall DAL
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
25%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
13%
Jumper
34%
Layup
21%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Kevin Durant PHX 23.1 5.4 4.1
2 Devin Booker PHX 18.4 3.4 4.0
3 Jaden Hardy DAL 15.7 2.6 4.1
4 Kyrie Irving DAL 12.6 4.0 1.9
5 Tyus Jones PHX 11.6 2.3 5.6
6 Jusuf Nurkic PHX 10.3 8.6 2.1
7 P.J. Washington DAL 9.6 4.7 1.5
8 Klay Thompson DAL 9.6 3.6 1.7
9 Dereck Lively II DAL 9.6 6.9 2.3
10 Jazian Gortman DAL 8.3 1.9 1.8
11 Royce O'Neale PHX 8.2 4.3 2.2
12 Monte Morris PHX 7.9 2.2 3.1
13 Daniel Gafford DAL 7.7 5.4 1.2
14 Olivier-Maxence Prosper DAL 7.6 3.4 1.2
15 Ryan Dunn PHX 7.6 3.8 1.3
16 Quentin Grimes DAL 7.3 3.7 2.1
17 Collin Gillespie PHX 7.0 1.6 2.6
18 Naji Marshall DAL 6.6 3.5 1.7
19 Oso Ighodaro PHX 5.9 4.3 1.7
20 Mason Plumlee PHX 5.9 4.8 1.3
21 Spencer Dinwiddie DAL 5.4 1.3 1.2
22 Bol Bol PHX 4.0 3.6 0.9
23 Dwight Powell DAL 3.1 1.9 0.8
24 Damion Lee PHX 2.8 0.6 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.