NBA games

HOU @ SA

NBA Frost Bank Center ·Final
106–109
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
HOU31102837106
SA38242522109

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 6 (SA) / 6 (HOU) games this season
HOU away
home SA
54% 46%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Green S 33 29 6 5
Fred VanVleet S 39 18 2 7
Dillon Brooks S 35 16 2 1
Jock Landale 14 13 2 0
Cam Whitmore 21 10 3 0
Jabari Smith Jr. S 32 7 7 1
Alperen Sengun S 22 6 5 2
Tari Eason 18 6 2 2
Amen Thompson 20 1 4 2
Reed Sheppard 6 0 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Victor Wembanyama S 30 29 7 1
Jeremy Sochan S 37 17 12 3
Keldon Johnson 29 16 8 0
Julian Champagnie S 25 12 6 0
Harrison Barnes S 28 11 3 1
Stephon Castle 27 8 1 3
Malaki Branham 14 7 3 2
Zach Collins 18 4 8 2
Chris Paul S 27 3 0 9
Blake Wesley 6 2 1 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Dillon Brooks · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:09 Q1
"Dillon Brooks makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshot (Alperen Sengun assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Green HOU
15%
2 Jeremy Sochan SA
14%
3 Alperen Sengun HOU
13%
4 Dillon Brooks HOU
10%
5 Harrison Barnes SA
9%
6 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU
9%
7 Fred VanVleet HOU
8%
8 Victor Wembanyama SA
8%
9 Chris Paul SA
7%
10 Julian Champagnie SA
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
13%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
6%
Jumper
18%
Layup
59%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Green HOU 21.7 4.1 2.2
2 Alperen Sengun HOU 20.9 10.9 3.7
3 Jeremy Sochan SA 15.2 7.4 2.3
4 Victor Wembanyama SA 14.2 8.9 2.7
5 Amen Thompson HOU 13.2 5.7 2.2
6 Dillon Brooks HOU 12.5 3.9 1.6
7 Keldon Johnson SA 12.4 4.7 1.8
8 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 11.6 7.5 2.3
9 Fred VanVleet HOU 11.6 2.7 6.1
10 Julian Champagnie SA 11.4 4.7 1.5
11 Stephon Castle SA 10.9 2.9 4.0
12 Malaki Branham SA 10.2 2.2 1.2
13 Harrison Barnes SA 9.6 3.3 1.7
14 Cam Whitmore HOU 8.8 2.5 1.6
15 Zach Collins SA 8.8 3.5 2.3
16 Chris Paul SA 8.5 3.2 5.4
17 Reed Sheppard HOU 7.1 3.0 2.4
18 Tari Eason HOU 7.0 3.8 1.5
19 Sandro Mamukelashvili SA 6.8 2.1 1.3
20 Blake Wesley SA 5.5 2.7 4.1
21 Riley Minix SA 4.9 1.5 0.4
22 Aaron Holiday HOU 4.8 1.4 0.8
23 Charles Bassey SA 4.6 3.6 0.7
24 Sidy Cissoko SA 4.6 2.4 1.0
25 Jock Landale HOU 4.2 3.3 1.0
26 Nate Williams HOU 4.2 1.4 0.8
27 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 3.7 2.6 1.0
28 N'Faly Dante HOU 2.0 1.8 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.