NBA games

TOR @ MIN

NBA Target Center ·Final
101–112
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
TOR18262829101
MIN32243323112

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 7 (MIN) / 7 (TOR) games this season
TOR away
home MIN
33% 67%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Gradey Dick S 30 25 1 2
Scottie Barnes S 37 20 8 6
Ochai Agbaji S 31 19 2 2
Jamison Battle 19 9 6 1
Jakob Poeltl S 30 8 10 3
Bruno Fernando 12 6 3 1
Jamal Shead 19 5 0 5
Chris Boucher 16 4 9 0
D.J. Carton 9 3 2 0
Jonathan Mogbo 9 2 3 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Julius Randle S 36 24 9 5
Anthony Edwards S 39 24 6 4
Donte DiVincenzo 23 16 2 2
Rudy Gobert S 39 15 12 1
Naz Reid 21 10 4 1
Mike Conley S 26 10 3 6
Jaden McDaniels S 33 9 3 2
Nickeil Alexander-Walker 16 4 1 4
Joe Ingles 6 0 1 4

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Mike Conley · 3PT (3 pts) · 10:59 Q1
"Mike Conley makes 22-foot three point jumper (Julius Randle assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Anthony Edwards MIN
10%
2 Julius Randle MIN
10%
3 Scottie Barnes TOR
8%
4 Gradey Dick TOR
8%
5 Jakob Poeltl TOR
7%
6 Rudy Gobert MIN
6%
7 Luka Garza MIN
6%
8 Terrence Shannon Jr. MIN
6%
9 Rob Dillingham MIN
6%
10 Ochai Agbaji TOR
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
34%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
11%
Jumper
13%
Layup
40%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Julius Randle MIN 24.5 6.8 5.0
2 Anthony Edwards MIN 23.2 4.6 3.9
3 Scottie Barnes TOR 21.2 6.3 4.5
4 Luka Garza MIN 14.7 5.3 1.1
5 Gradey Dick TOR 14.2 3.8 1.5
6 Jakob Poeltl TOR 13.9 9.6 3.0
7 Naz Reid MIN 13.8 5.5 2.1
8 Donte DiVincenzo MIN 12.4 3.0 3.4
9 Josh Minott MIN 11.6 4.7 1.6
10 Ochai Agbaji TOR 9.9 4.6 1.9
11 Rudy Gobert MIN 9.6 9.6 1.4
12 Chris Boucher TOR 9.4 3.7 1.0
13 Jamal Shead TOR 8.6 1.5 3.4
14 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN 8.5 2.7 1.7
15 Rob Dillingham MIN 8.0 2.0 4.1
16 Jaden McDaniels MIN 7.9 3.1 1.8
17 Davion Mitchell TOR 7.7 2.5 4.6
18 Jamison Battle TOR 5.9 1.9 0.8
19 Jonathan Mogbo TOR 5.9 4.7 2.2
20 Mike Conley MIN 5.9 2.2 2.1
21 Bruno Fernando TOR 5.6 5.4 0.9
22 D.J. Carton TOR 4.7 2.0 1.7
23 Terrence Shannon Jr. MIN 4.3 1.7 1.6
24 Leonard Miller MIN 4.0 3.3 0.6
25 Joe Ingles MIN 3.4 1.6 1.8
26 PJ Dozier MIN 2.6 0.6 0.8
27 Ulrich Chomche TOR 2.3 1.7 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.