NBA games

ORL @ MEM

NBA FedExForum ·Final
111–124
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ORL24193533111
MEM34352134124

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 7 (MEM) / 5 (ORL) games this season
ORL away
home MEM
30% 70%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Franz Wagner S 34 23 7 3
Jalen Suggs S 31 21 7 3
Paolo Banchero S 37 16 7 3
Jett Howard 12 11 2 0
Anthony Black 20 10 1 3
Moritz Wagner 12 9 3 0
Caleb Houstan 5 6 0 0
Cole Anthony 8 4 0 2
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope S 28 3 2 1
Cory Joseph 5 3 0 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Santi Aldama 28 22 7 5
Jay Huff 19 18 2 0
Ja Morant S 25 16 2 10
Desmond Bane S 28 13 7 2
Jaren Jackson Jr. S 23 13 4 1
Scotty Pippen Jr. 23 11 5 12
Marcus Smart S 21 9 0 3
Zach Edey S 13 7 1 0
Jaylen Wells 18 7 2 2
Brandon Clarke 18 5 5 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Desmond Bane · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:45 Q1
"Desmond Bane makes 5-foot driving floating jump shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Ja Morant MEM
16%
2 Desmond Bane MEM
12%
3 Franz Wagner ORL
12%
4 Paolo Banchero ORL
12%
5 Zach Edey MEM
10%
6 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL
9%
7 Jalen Suggs ORL
8%
8 Marcus Smart MEM
8%
9 Santi Aldama MEM
6%
10 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ORL
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
13%
Dunk
15%
Free Throw
22%
Jumper
19%
Layup
31%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Ja Morant MEM 21.1 4.8 5.6
2 Paolo Banchero ORL 20.8 6.7 4.9
3 Desmond Bane MEM 19.3 4.6 4.1
4 Franz Wagner ORL 16.2 4.2 3.1
5 Santi Aldama MEM 12.1 5.0 2.8
6 Anthony Black ORL 11.1 4.0 4.4
7 Jalen Suggs ORL 10.6 4.0 3.1
8 Jaylen Wells MEM 10.6 3.1 1.9
9 Zach Edey MEM 10.1 6.9 1.1
10 Scotty Pippen Jr. MEM 9.6 2.6 4.1
11 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 9.1 9.1 1.9
12 Jake LaRavia MEM 8.6 4.9 2.2
13 Jay Huff MEM 8.1 4.5 1.1
14 Moritz Wagner ORL 7.5 3.2 1.3
15 Gary Harris ORL 7.4 2.0 0.8
16 Marcus Smart MEM 7.3 2.1 2.6
17 Jett Howard ORL 7.1 1.3 1.0
18 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ORL 6.7 2.6 1.8
19 Cole Anthony ORL 6.3 2.1 2.7
20 Brandon Clarke MEM 5.6 2.1 1.2
21 Goga Bitadze ORL 5.0 5.9 0.5
22 Yuki Kawamura MEM 4.2 1.0 3.1
23 Caleb Houstan ORL 2.6 1.0 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.