NBA games

OKC @ CHI

NBA United Center ·Final
114–95
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
OKC26332926114
CHI2118263095

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 7 (CHI) / 6 (OKC) games this season
OKC away
home CHI
70% 30%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Williams S 32 24 9 8
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 30 23 8 2
Chet Holmgren S 29 21 16 0
Cason Wallace S 29 9 6 2
Aaron Wiggins 16 8 3 1
Luguentz Dort S 25 7 2 1
Isaiah Joe 12 6 1 1
Ousmane Dieng 20 6 6 1
Ajay Mitchell 16 4 1 3
Adam Flagler 3 3 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Zach LaVine S 34 22 9 3
Nikola Vucevic S 33 18 13 2
Josh Giddey S 26 14 7 4
Julian Phillips 15 9 1 0
Coby White S 30 9 4 3
Jalen Smith 11 4 6 0
Matas Buzelis 7 3 1 0
Patrick Williams S 26 3 8 2
Chris Duarte 4 3 0 1
Lonzo Ball 16 3 5 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Chet Holmgren · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:45 Q1
"Chet Holmgren makes alley oop dunk shot (Jalen Williams assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Chet Holmgren OKC
13%
2 Nikola Vucevic CHI
13%
3 Jalen Williams OKC
12%
4 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
12%
5 Josh Giddey CHI
9%
6 Patrick Williams CHI
9%
7 Coby White CHI
8%
8 Isaiah Joe OKC
8%
9 Zach LaVine CHI
8%
10 Luguentz Dort OKC
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
20%
Dunk
27%
Free Throw
8%
Jumper
17%
Layup
28%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Coby White CHI 22.0 5.2 5.6
2 Zach LaVine CHI 20.7 4.6 3.4
3 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 20.2 4.8 5.6
4 Nikola Vucevic CHI 17.5 10.2 3.2
5 Jalen Williams OKC 14.0 3.6 2.5
6 Chet Holmgren OKC 13.9 7.5 2.2
7 Josh Giddey CHI 12.7 5.4 5.3
8 Ousmane Dieng OKC 11.6 6.1 3.0
9 Jalen Smith CHI 10.4 7.3 1.4
10 Dillon Jones OKC 10.3 5.6 3.3
11 Aaron Wiggins OKC 9.6 4.4 2.2
12 Patrick Williams CHI 9.1 4.2 1.9
13 Ayo Dosunmu CHI 9.1 3.2 2.1
14 Ajay Mitchell OKC 9.0 2.6 1.9
15 Isaiah Joe OKC 8.9 3.0 1.6
16 Talen Horton-Tucker CHI 8.0 3.0 1.5
17 Cason Wallace OKC 7.4 4.4 1.7
18 Lonzo Ball CHI 7.4 2.3 2.2
19 Julian Phillips CHI 7.2 3.0 0.9
20 Luguentz Dort OKC 6.7 3.3 1.4
21 Matas Buzelis CHI 6.3 2.7 1.4
22 Adam Flagler OKC 6.1 1.8 1.1
23 Alex Caruso OKC 5.5 2.9 2.3
24 Alex Ducas OKC 5.5 2.0 0.8
25 Dalen Terry CHI 5.3 3.1 2.3
26 Torrey Craig CHI 4.4 1.6 0.5
27 Chris Duarte CHI 3.7 1.9 0.8
28 Jevon Carter CHI 3.0 0.9 0.5
29 Alex Reese OKC 2.7 1.6 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.