NBA games

CLE @ WSH

NBA Capital One Arena ·Final
135–116
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CLE28313838135
WSH25282835116

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 6 (WSH) / 6 (CLE) games this season
CLE away
home WSH
70% 30%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Donovan Mitchell S 29 30 4 5
Jarrett Allen S 25 23 5 1
Darius Garland S 24 23 2 5
Ty Jerome 15 14 2 3
Evan Mobley S 32 13 13 4
Sam Merrill 20 11 2 1
Caris LeVert 19 10 0 4
Georges Niang 21 3 6 1
Jaylon Tyson 8 3 1 0
Isaac Okoro 19 3 5 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Bilal Coulibaly S 35 23 6 1
Kyle Kuzma S 24 14 8 3
Jordan Poole S 24 14 1 6
Alex Sarr S 25 12 6 1
Corey Kispert 26 10 1 2
Jonas Valanciunas 21 10 8 0
Bub Carrington S 25 10 2 4
Marvin Bagley III 10 9 6 0
Jared Butler 11 8 1 3
Johnny Davis 6 2 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Kyle Kuzma · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:25 Q1
"Kyle Kuzma makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jarrett Allen CLE
14%
2 Donovan Mitchell CLE
13%
3 Evan Mobley CLE
13%
4 Jordan Poole WSH
11%
5 Kyle Kuzma WSH
10%
6 Bilal Coulibaly WSH
10%
7 Alex Sarr WSH
7%
8 Darius Garland CLE
7%
9 Bub Carrington WSH
7%
10 Dean Wade CLE
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
41%
Free Throw
5%
Jumper
9%
Layup
45%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Donovan Mitchell CLE 20.5 3.5 4.5
2 Evan Mobley CLE 19.5 7.7 3.6
3 Jordan Poole WSH 15.7 2.8 4.2
4 Jarrett Allen CLE 15.6 9.5 2.0
5 Darius Garland CLE 15.2 2.4 5.0
6 Corey Kispert WSH 11.9 3.1 1.9
7 Kyle Kuzma WSH 11.5 4.3 2.7
8 Caris LeVert CLE 11.3 2.9 3.9
9 Bilal Coulibaly WSH 11.2 5.2 2.6
10 Alex Sarr WSH 10.6 5.1 2.1
11 Ty Jerome CLE 9.4 2.7 3.4
12 Jonas Valanciunas WSH 9.1 5.6 1.7
13 Bub Carrington WSH 8.7 4.0 1.9
14 Dean Wade CLE 8.5 4.8 1.6
15 Kyshawn George WSH 8.3 3.4 2.6
16 Jared Butler WSH 7.1 1.5 3.9
17 Georges Niang CLE 7.0 2.7 0.8
18 Marvin Bagley III WSH 7.0 4.7 1.7
19 Patrick Baldwin Jr. WSH 5.8 2.4 1.0
20 Jaylon Tyson CLE 5.7 3.1 1.1
21 Isaac Okoro CLE 5.4 2.0 1.6
22 Sam Merrill CLE 5.3 1.6 1.2
23 Johnny Davis WSH 4.8 1.7 1.3
24 Craig Porter Jr. CLE 4.7 1.6 1.6
25 Tristan Thompson CLE 4.1 3.5 0.8
26 Anthony Gill WSH 3.7 1.1 0.9
27 Richaun Holmes WSH 3.4 3.0 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.