NBA games

BOS @ DET

NBA Little Caesars Arena ·Final
124–118
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
BOS42312130124
DET31313125118

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 7 (DET) / 7 (BOS) games this season
BOS away
home DET
68% 32%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jayson Tatum S 38 37 4 2
Jaylen Brown S 38 24 10 5
Payton Pritchard 19 19 2 0
Al Horford S 32 17 5 1
Derrick White S 39 17 6 3
Jrue Holiday S 36 7 3 4
Xavier Tillman 18 3 3 1
Luke Kornet 19 0 4 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaden Ivey S 39 26 5 6
Cade Cunningham S 41 21 6 10
Malik Beasley 20 17 3 0
Jalen Duren S 29 15 9 2
Simone Fontecchio 18 11 2 0
Tim Hardaway Jr. S 37 9 2 2
Tobias Harris S 31 8 11 3
Isaiah Stewart 19 6 5 3
Ronald Holland II 6 5 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jaylen Brown · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:19 Q1
"Jaylen Brown makes 28-foot three pointer"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jaden Ivey DET
14%
2 Jaylen Brown BOS
13%
3 Cade Cunningham DET
13%
4 Jalen Duren DET
10%
5 Jayson Tatum BOS
10%
6 Jrue Holiday BOS
9%
7 Derrick White BOS
9%
8 Tobias Harris DET
9%
9 Tim Hardaway Jr. DET
7%
10 Al Horford BOS
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
26%
Dunk
17%
Free Throw
12%
Jumper
17%
Layup
28%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jayson Tatum BOS 24.0 6.3 6.4
2 Cade Cunningham DET 20.9 5.2 6.5
3 Jaylen Brown BOS 19.5 4.7 3.1
4 Jaden Ivey DET 17.3 3.8 3.5
5 Derrick White BOS 16.4 3.5 3.3
6 Payton Pritchard BOS 13.2 3.2 4.9
7 Tobias Harris DET 12.1 3.9 2.4
8 Jalen Duren DET 9.6 6.9 2.5
9 Jrue Holiday BOS 8.5 2.6 1.5
10 Malik Beasley DET 8.4 2.6 1.4
11 Drew Peterson BOS 7.7 2.3 1.0
12 Ronald Holland II DET 7.0 3.7 1.9
13 Luke Kornet BOS 6.9 5.5 1.3
14 Al Horford BOS 6.5 3.3 2.0
15 Simone Fontecchio DET 6.5 2.6 0.9
16 Jordan Walsh BOS 6.0 2.7 1.2
17 Xavier Tillman BOS 5.9 4.3 1.2
18 Isaiah Stewart DET 5.7 2.8 1.2
19 Tim Hardaway Jr. DET 5.6 2.2 1.0
20 Cole Swider DET 5.4 2.6 0.9
21 JD Davison BOS 5.3 1.8 2.1
22 Neemias Queta BOS 5.1 4.5 1.2
23 Wendell Moore Jr. DET 4.6 2.5 0.6
24 Daniss Jenkins DET 4.6 2.0 1.3
25 Jaden Springer BOS 4.1 1.4 1.3
26 Marcus Sasser DET 3.8 1.2 2.1
27 Baylor Scheierman BOS 3.6 1.6 0.7
28 Alondes Williams DET 3.6 1.6 2.3
29 Paul Reed DET 3.2 3.1 1.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.