NBA games

MIA @ CHA

NBA Spectrum Center ·Final
114–106
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIA23332731114
CHA23252434106

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 7 (CHA) / 6 (MIA) games this season
MIA away
home CHA
48% 52%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jimmy Butler III S 37 26 8 8
Tyler Herro S 33 22 5 5
Terry Rozier S 32 19 5 3
Bam Adebayo S 33 12 11 3
Nikola Jovic S 30 10 4 6
Alec Burks 25 9 2 0
Thomas Bryant 12 6 1 2
Jaime Jaquez Jr. 22 6 6 4
Duncan Robinson 15 4 0 1
Dru Smith 3 0 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
LaMelo Ball S 37 27 8 7
Miles Bridges S 35 16 9 2
Seth Curry S 29 15 4 2
Tre Mann 32 14 5 4
Nick Richards S 35 12 12 1
Cody Martin S 27 10 3 2
Grant Williams 19 7 2 1
Moussa Diabate 8 5 2 0
Tidjane Salaun 9 0 1 0
Vasilije Micic 10 0 0 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Miles Bridges · Layup (2 pts) · 9:51 Q1
"Miles Bridges makes driving layup (LaMelo Ball assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 LaMelo Ball CHA
13%
2 Tyler Herro MIA
12%
3 Terry Rozier MIA
12%
4 Miles Bridges CHA
11%
5 Nick Richards CHA
10%
6 Bam Adebayo MIA
9%
7 Jimmy Butler III MIA
9%
8 Nikola Jovic MIA
9%
9 Cody Martin CHA
8%
10 Seth Curry CHA
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
38%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
10%
Jumper
14%
Layup
35%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 LaMelo Ball CHA 22.1 5.5 6.6
2 Tre Mann CHA 19.8 4.4 3.6
3 Tyler Herro MIA 15.9 4.1 3.4
4 Miles Bridges CHA 13.1 5.9 1.9
5 Tidjane Salaun CHA 11.2 6.5 1.5
6 Bam Adebayo MIA 10.7 4.8 1.7
7 Terry Rozier MIA 10.6 4.4 3.1
8 Jimmy Butler III MIA 10.5 3.6 2.4
9 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 9.1 4.2 2.9
10 Nick Richards CHA 8.1 8.4 1.0
11 Nikola Jovic MIA 8.0 2.8 1.8
12 Haywood Highsmith MIA 7.9 3.7 1.1
13 Duncan Robinson MIA 7.0 2.0 2.1
14 Grant Williams CHA 7.0 3.2 2.0
15 Seth Curry CHA 6.5 2.4 1.6
16 Kel'el Ware MIA 6.2 4.1 0.6
17 Cody Martin CHA 6.2 5.2 1.0
18 Moussa Diabate CHA 5.9 5.1 1.0
19 Vasilije Micic CHA 5.9 2.9 2.4
20 Pelle Larsson MIA 5.7 1.6 1.5
21 Alec Burks MIA 5.1 2.0 1.2
22 Thomas Bryant MIA 4.9 2.5 0.9
23 Dru Smith MIA 4.8 2.0 2.2
24 KJ Simpson CHA 4.4 1.9 1.6
25 Keshad Johnson MIA 4.1 1.8 0.7
26 Taj Gibson CHA 2.8 1.9 0.3
27 Jared Rhoden CHA 2.6 1.5 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.