NBA games

LAC @ DEN

NBA Ball Arena ·Final
109–104
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAC27212239109
DEN19232933104

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 6 (DEN) / 6 (LAC) games this season
LAC away
home DEN
85% 15%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Norman Powell S 33 37 3 0
Ivica Zubac S 39 24 15 4
James Harden S 38 23 6 16
Kris Dunn 19 11 6 1
Derrick Jones Jr. S 27 9 1 1
Kevin Porter Jr. 15 4 2 1
Nicolas Batum 22 1 4 3
Amir Coffey 24 0 2 3
Kai Jones 4 0 2 0
Terance Mann S 21 0 3 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nikola Jokic S 37 41 9 4
Jamal Murray S 37 22 2 5
Christian Braun S 34 11 7 1
Aaron Gordon S 36 10 5 2
Michael Porter Jr. S 38 9 9 3
Julian Strawther 16 8 2 3
Russell Westbrook 19 2 1 2
Peyton Watson 12 1 0 0
Dario Saric 11 0 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jamal Murray · 3PT (3 pts) · 10:47 Q1
"Jamal Murray makes 25-foot running pullup jump shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Michael Porter Jr. DEN
12%
2 Nikola Jokic DEN
12%
3 James Harden LAC
10%
4 Ivica Zubac LAC
10%
5 Christian Braun DEN
9%
6 Aaron Gordon DEN
8%
7 Norman Powell LAC
8%
8 Terance Mann LAC
8%
9 Derrick Jones Jr. LAC
7%
10 Jamal Murray DEN
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
31%
Dunk
11%
Free Throw
15%
Jumper
24%
Layup
19%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Nikola Jokic DEN 21.0 10.4 6.5
2 James Harden LAC 20.4 5.1 10.5
3 Julian Strawther DEN 16.8 3.2 2.7
4 Michael Porter Jr. DEN 15.0 5.5 1.5
5 Norman Powell LAC 12.3 2.9 2.2
6 Jamal Murray DEN 10.8 2.9 2.9
7 Christian Braun DEN 10.7 5.1 1.9
8 Aaron Gordon DEN 10.6 4.9 3.5
9 Russell Westbrook DEN 10.6 3.3 5.2
10 Ivica Zubac LAC 10.2 6.5 1.7
11 Jordan Miller LAC 9.8 3.0 1.6
12 Bones Hyland LAC 9.3 3.8 1.6
13 Kevin Porter Jr. LAC 9.1 3.4 3.9
14 Derrick Jones Jr. LAC 8.9 2.7 1.2
15 Amir Coffey LAC 8.9 2.4 1.1
16 Kai Jones LAC 8.8 5.6 1.4
17 Terance Mann LAC 7.0 3.2 1.3
18 Kobe Brown LAC 6.3 5.2 1.8
19 Dario Saric DEN 6.2 3.5 1.4
20 Zeke Nnaji DEN 5.5 2.6 0.7
21 Kris Dunn LAC 5.4 2.9 1.3
22 Trey Alexander DEN 4.9 2.4 1.8
23 Hunter Tyson DEN 4.3 3.5 1.0
24 Vlatko Cancar DEN 4.1 1.9 1.3
25 Nicolas Batum LAC 3.4 2.8 1.3
26 Jalen Pickett DEN 3.3 1.3 1.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.