NBA games

NO @ POR

NBA Moda Center ·Final
105103
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NO15223830105
POR27203719103

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 5 (POR) / 4 (NO) games this season
NO away
home POR
35% 65%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jordan Hawkins 29 24 5 0
Brandon Ingram S 35 21 8 4
CJ McCollum S 40 20 2 3
Zion Williamson S 29 16 11 7
Herbert Jones S 29 8 1 1
Yves Missi 22 8 6 2
Daniel Theis S 18 5 6 4
Javonte Green 19 3 2 0
Jeremiah Robinson-Earl 4 0 2 0
Jose Alvarado 13 0 1 4
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jerami Grant S 40 34 6 1
Anfernee Simons S 36 24 1 7
Scoot Henderson 29 15 1 6
Deandre Ayton S 33 10 15 2
Kris Murray 15 7 3 2
Toumani Camara S 25 5 6 2
Donovan Clingan 14 4 6 0
Deni Avdija S 31 2 6 6
Jabari Walker 17 2 4 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
CJ McCollum · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:25 Q1
"CJ McCollum makes 27-foot three point jumper (Brandon Ingram assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jerami Grant POR
19%
2 Deni Avdija POR
16%
3 Deandre Ayton POR
14%
4 CJ McCollum NO
14%
5 Toumani Camara POR
14%
6 Daniel Theis NO
11%
7 Herbert Jones NO
10%
8 Jordan Hawkins NO
0%
9 Scoot Henderson POR
0%
10 Jeremiah Robinson-Earl NO
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
54%
Dunk
12%
Free Throw
6%
Jumper
13%
Layup
14%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Scoot Henderson POR 17.6 4.5 4.8
2 Jordan Hawkins NO 14.9 3.6 1.4
3 Toumani Camara POR 13.8 6.1 3.0
4 Jerami Grant POR 13.6 2.6 2.4
5 Deni Avdija POR 13.0 5.5 3.6
6 CJ McCollum NO 11.2 3.8 2.3
7 Deandre Ayton POR 9.8 7.9 1.5
8 Rayan Rupert POR 9.7 3.5 1.7
9 Dalano Banton POR 8.0 2.8 3.2
10 Donovan Clingan POR 7.7 9.1 1.2
11 Kris Murray POR 7.6 2.9 1.6
12 Jose Alvarado NO 6.5 2.4 2.9
13 Yves Missi NO 6.4 4.6 0.9
14 Daniel Theis NO 6.2 2.6 1.3
15 Herbert Jones NO 6.0 3.0 1.5
16 Javonte Green NO 5.8 3.8 1.3
17 Jabari Walker POR 5.7 3.8 1.2
18 Jeremiah Robinson-Earl NO 4.9 2.2 0.7
19 Duop Reath POR 4.9 2.1 0.9
20 Antonio Reeves NO 3.1 1.4 0.6
21 Taze Moore POR 1.3 0.8 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.