NBA games

PHX @ LAL

NBA crypto.com Arena ·Final
116–123
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHX38232431116
LAL23293536123

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 7 (LAL) / 6 (PHX) games this season
PHX away
home LAL
63% 37%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kevin Durant S 39 30 4 6
Devin Booker S 35 23 3 4
Bradley Beal S 35 15 1 9
Tyus Jones S 32 14 2 4
Ryan Dunn 14 9 3 1
Monte Morris 13 8 2 3
Royce O'Neale 28 7 4 4
Mason Plumlee 19 6 7 0
Jusuf Nurkic S 18 4 7 4
Oso Ighodaro 6 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Davis S 38 35 8 4
Austin Reaves S 37 26 4 8
LeBron James S 35 21 4 8
Rui Hachimura S 39 14 7 2
Dalton Knecht 13 8 1 2
Jaxson Hayes 18 6 6 4
D'Angelo Russell S 29 5 2 5
Gabe Vincent 21 5 2 0
Max Christie 11 3 3 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Kevin Durant · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:25 Q1
"Kevin Durant makes 25-foot three point shot (Bradley Beal assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Rui Hachimura LAL
12%
2 Austin Reaves LAL
12%
3 Kevin Durant PHX
11%
4 Bradley Beal PHX
11%
5 Anthony Davis LAL
10%
6 Devin Booker PHX
10%
7 D'Angelo Russell LAL
10%
8 LeBron James LAL
9%
9 Tyus Jones PHX
7%
10 Quincy Olivari LAL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
32%
Dunk
11%
Free Throw
10%
Jumper
25%
Layup
22%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Anthony Davis LAL 25.0 10.8 3.1
2 Kevin Durant PHX 20.3 5.3 3.5
3 Devin Booker PHX 17.1 3.3 4.0
4 Bradley Beal PHX 16.4 3.8 2.5
5 Dalton Knecht LAL 15.3 4.4 2.5
6 LeBron James LAL 14.8 5.1 3.9
7 Austin Reaves LAL 14.4 6.0 4.6
8 Rui Hachimura LAL 13.9 6.8 1.6
9 D'Angelo Russell LAL 11.1 2.7 4.9
10 Tyus Jones PHX 10.6 2.2 5.8
11 Royce O'Neale PHX 8.0 4.5 1.9
12 Ryan Dunn PHX 7.9 3.7 1.3
13 Monte Morris PHX 7.8 2.3 3.2
14 Collin Gillespie PHX 7.5 1.7 2.7
15 Quincy Olivari LAL 7.0 2.8 1.0
16 Max Christie LAL 6.9 3.3 1.1
17 Oso Ighodaro PHX 6.8 4.8 1.9
18 Jaxson Hayes LAL 6.2 5.9 1.2
19 Mason Plumlee PHX 5.6 4.5 1.5
20 Gabe Vincent LAL 5.2 1.2 1.2
21 Bol Bol PHX 4.5 3.8 0.9
22 Bronny James LAL 3.9 1.9 0.7
23 Armel Traore LAL 3.6 3.7 0.3
24 Damion Lee PHX 3.1 0.7 0.6
25 Maxwell Lewis LAL 3.1 1.6 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.