NBA games

GS @ UTAH

NBA Delta Center ·Final
127–86
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
GS32243833127
UTAH2418281686

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 7 (UTAH) / 7 (GS) games this season
GS away
home UTAH
72% 28%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Buddy Hield 20 27 4 6
Stephen Curry S 27 20 3 4
Brandin Podziemski 25 15 5 1
Trayce Jackson-Davis S 17 12 9 2
Moses Moody 19 12 1 1
Andrew Wiggins S 23 10 13 5
Kevon Looney 13 9 10 1
Kyle Anderson 19 7 6 3
Lindy Waters III 7 6 1 1
Gary Payton II 13 4 1 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
John Collins 24 14 7 4
Lauri Markkanen S 27 13 8 2
Collin Sexton S 21 12 2 1
Keyonte George S 30 12 2 3
Jordan Clarkson 24 11 1 2
Brice Sensabaugh 18 9 3 0
Patty Mills 18 7 1 0
Drew Eubanks 6 4 2 2
Walker Kessler S 20 2 9 2
Cody Williams 25 2 3 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Keyonte George · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:40 Q1
"Keyonte George makes 24-foot three point jumper (Walker Kessler assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Lauri Markkanen UTAH
14%
2 Andrew Wiggins GS
12%
3 Keyonte George UTAH
11%
4 Collin Sexton UTAH
10%
5 Walker Kessler UTAH
10%
6 Stephen Curry GS
10%
7 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS
9%
8 Taylor Hendricks UTAH
9%
9 Jonathan Kuminga GS
7%
10 Draymond Green GS
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
22%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
16%
Jumper
20%
Layup
34%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Lauri Markkanen UTAH 19.1 5.0 1.7
2 Andrew Wiggins GS 14.6 3.3 2.3
3 Moses Moody GS 14.6 3.5 1.8
4 Collin Sexton UTAH 14.6 3.8 3.7
5 Keyonte George UTAH 13.9 2.6 3.7
6 Stephen Curry GS 12.9 3.7 4.9
7 Jonathan Kuminga GS 12.4 4.4 1.6
8 Buddy Hield GS 12.2 3.0 1.8
9 Jordan Clarkson UTAH 12.0 4.3 3.0
10 Brandin Podziemski GS 10.0 4.6 4.1
11 Walker Kessler UTAH 9.4 9.9 1.5
12 De'Anthony Melton GS 9.3 2.7 3.6
13 John Collins UTAH 9.2 5.4 1.4
14 Brice Sensabaugh UTAH 8.6 3.4 1.6
15 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS 8.5 6.4 2.2
16 Taylor Hendricks UTAH 8.5 4.0 1.2
17 Lindy Waters III GS 7.5 3.2 0.8
18 Draymond Green GS 7.3 4.0 3.0
19 Cody Williams UTAH 7.0 2.8 1.5
20 Kyle Anderson GS 5.7 2.9 2.4
21 Kevon Looney GS 5.4 4.2 1.8
22 Drew Eubanks UTAH 5.4 4.3 0.4
23 Gary Payton II GS 4.9 2.3 1.7
24 Kyle Filipowski UTAH 3.9 3.6 1.4
25 Patty Mills UTAH 3.6 1.6 0.7
26 Gui Santos GS 3.1 1.7 0.8

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.