NBA games

MEM @ HOU

NBA Toyota Center (Houston) ·Final
108–128
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MEM38271825108
HOU38213930128

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 5 (HOU) / 6 (MEM) games this season
MEM away
home HOU
27% 73%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Ja Morant S 24 24 0 2
Desmond Bane S 29 17 3 4
Zach Edey S 23 13 9 1
Scotty Pippen Jr. 24 13 3 4
Jay Huff 16 8 3 1
Jaylen Wells 21 8 4 0
John Konchar 22 7 6 2
Marcus Smart S 20 7 1 2
Jake LaRavia 23 6 6 4
Brandon Clarke 12 3 3 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Green S 32 22 6 4
Dillon Brooks S 31 18 4 0
Fred VanVleet S 31 16 3 3
Alperen Sengun S 32 16 15 2
Jabari Smith Jr. S 35 14 16 4
Tari Eason 16 13 5 0
Cam Whitmore 14 11 3 0
Amen Thompson 24 9 6 3
Reed Sheppard 13 6 0 2
Nate Williams 2 3 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Alperen Sengun · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:32 Q1
"Alperen Sengun makes 11-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Ja Morant MEM
16%
2 Alperen Sengun HOU
15%
3 Desmond Bane MEM
10%
4 Jalen Green HOU
10%
5 Zach Edey MEM
9%
6 Santi Aldama MEM
8%
7 Fred VanVleet HOU
8%
8 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU
8%
9 Marcus Smart MEM
8%
10 Dillon Brooks HOU
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
3%
Dunk
34%
Free Throw
13%
Jumper
28%
Layup
22%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Green HOU 21.9 3.7 1.9
2 Alperen Sengun HOU 21.1 10.0 3.9
3 Ja Morant MEM 20.6 6.8 6.4
4 Desmond Bane MEM 19.2 4.6 3.8
5 Santi Aldama MEM 13.9 5.3 2.9
6 Amen Thompson HOU 12.6 5.7 1.8
7 Jaylen Wells MEM 12.1 3.4 2.4
8 Dillon Brooks HOU 11.0 3.7 1.7
9 Fred VanVleet HOU 10.9 2.6 6.3
10 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 10.7 6.2 2.0
11 Zach Edey MEM 10.1 7.2 1.1
12 Scotty Pippen Jr. MEM 9.4 2.8 4.0
13 Jay Huff MEM 9.1 4.5 1.2
14 Jake LaRavia MEM 8.5 4.8 2.0
15 Cam Whitmore HOU 8.3 2.1 1.8
16 Marcus Smart MEM 7.4 2.5 2.7
17 Reed Sheppard HOU 7.2 3.6 2.6
18 John Konchar MEM 6.2 4.7 1.6
19 Tari Eason HOU 6.2 3.6 1.7
20 Brandon Clarke MEM 5.8 2.4 1.5
21 Aaron Holiday HOU 4.0 1.0 0.5
22 Yuki Kawamura MEM 3.7 0.6 3.1
23 Nate Williams HOU 3.2 0.8 0.4
24 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 3.0 2.3 0.7
25 N'Faly Dante HOU 2.2 1.9 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.