NBA games

IND @ NY

NBA Madison Square Garden ·Final
98–123
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
IND2421193498
NY25363428123

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 6 (NY) / 5 (IND) games this season
IND away
home NY
42% 58%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Bennedict Mathurin 24 20 2 1
Myles Turner S 23 13 7 1
Pascal Siakam S 23 12 5 2
Jarace Walker 20 12 4 3
Isaiah Jackson 15 10 5 2
Obi Toppin 20 8 1 4
T.J. McConnell 16 7 2 5
Ben Sheppard 12 4 0 0
Aaron Nesmith S 18 4 2 0
James Johnson 4 2 0 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Brunson S 30 26 5 5
Mikal Bridges S 33 21 1 5
Karl-Anthony Towns S 32 21 15 0
Josh Hart S 37 20 10 3
OG Anunoby S 34 14 4 1
Miles McBride 21 8 2 2
Cameron Payne 22 7 2 3
Tyler Kolek 4 4 0 0
Jericho Sims 15 2 2 0
Ariel Hukporti 6 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Myles Turner · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:22 Q1
"Myles Turner makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Karl-Anthony Towns NY
13%
2 Myles Turner IND
12%
3 Jalen Brunson NY
11%
4 Mikal Bridges NY
11%
5 Tyrese Haliburton IND
10%
6 OG Anunoby NY
9%
7 Pascal Siakam IND
9%
8 Josh Hart NY
9%
9 Andrew Nembhard IND
8%
10 Aaron Nesmith IND
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
12%
Dunk
13%
Free Throw
14%
Jumper
36%
Layup
25%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Brunson NY 22.9 3.1 4.4
2 Miles McBride NY 18.5 2.3 3.5
3 Karl-Anthony Towns NY 17.4 10.0 2.3
4 Myles Turner IND 16.3 6.1 2.9
5 Bennedict Mathurin IND 14.3 3.2 2.3
6 Cameron Payne NY 13.8 3.2 4.8
7 Mikal Bridges NY 12.1 3.2 1.7
8 Pascal Siakam IND 11.9 4.7 4.4
9 Tyrese Haliburton IND 11.5 3.5 4.3
10 OG Anunoby NY 9.8 4.7 1.7
11 T.J. McConnell IND 9.2 2.6 3.9
12 Tyler Kolek NY 8.9 2.4 3.6
13 Andrew Nembhard IND 8.4 2.3 3.1
14 Pacome Dadiet NY 8.2 2.9 0.9
15 Jarace Walker IND 8.1 3.4 1.8
16 Enrique Freeman IND 7.0 4.6 1.3
17 Ben Sheppard IND 7.0 2.3 1.4
18 Obi Toppin IND 6.5 2.6 1.7
19 Aaron Nesmith IND 6.3 2.4 1.0
20 Quenton Jackson IND 5.7 1.8 1.5
21 Josh Hart NY 5.5 3.8 2.7
22 Jericho Sims NY 3.6 5.7 0.7
23 Ariel Hukporti NY 3.1 3.4 0.5
24 Jacob Toppin NY 2.4 1.5 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.