NBA games

DET @ CLE

NBA Rocket Arena ·Final
101–113
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DET29262422101
CLE28372622113

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 5 (CLE) / 6 (DET) games this season
DET away
home CLE
14% 86%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cade Cunningham S 35 33 4 6
Jaden Ivey S 29 22 5 4
Malik Beasley 29 13 4 1
Tobias Harris S 35 10 5 4
Tim Hardaway Jr. S 23 9 3 1
Jalen Duren S 29 5 7 5
Simone Fontecchio 20 5 2 0
Ronald Holland II 17 4 7 1
Paul Reed 7 0 1 1
Wendell Moore Jr. 1 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Dean Wade S 27 19 5 1
Donovan Mitchell S 30 19 2 5
Jarrett Allen S 31 17 11 2
Evan Mobley S 32 16 6 3
Darius Garland S 33 13 2 6
Ty Jerome 16 13 2 4
Caris LeVert 20 9 3 2
Isaac Okoro 18 4 2 3
Georges Niang 15 3 5 0
Craig Porter Jr. 1 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Cade Cunningham · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:32 Q1
"Cade Cunningham makes 18-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Evan Mobley CLE
15%
2 Cade Cunningham DET
13%
3 Jarrett Allen CLE
13%
4 Donovan Mitchell CLE
11%
5 Jaden Ivey DET
10%
6 Jalen Duren DET
10%
7 Tobias Harris DET
8%
8 Darius Garland CLE
7%
9 Dean Wade CLE
7%
10 Tim Hardaway Jr. DET
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
11%
Dunk
19%
Free Throw
31%
Jumper
19%
Layup
21%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Donovan Mitchell CLE 19.8 3.4 4.4
2 Evan Mobley CLE 19.7 7.7 3.3
3 Cade Cunningham DET 18.5 5.5 6.8
4 Jaden Ivey DET 17.0 3.9 3.5
5 Jarrett Allen CLE 15.5 9.0 2.0
6 Darius Garland CLE 14.9 2.3 5.0
7 Tobias Harris DET 12.5 4.0 2.4
8 Caris LeVert CLE 11.8 2.8 4.6
9 Jalen Duren DET 11.0 8.0 2.3
10 Ty Jerome CLE 9.1 2.6 3.4
11 Ronald Holland II DET 8.1 3.7 2.4
12 Malik Beasley DET 8.1 2.4 1.6
13 Georges Niang CLE 7.5 2.2 0.9
14 Dean Wade CLE 7.4 4.5 1.5
15 Simone Fontecchio DET 6.9 2.7 1.1
16 Cole Swider DET 6.3 2.9 1.1
17 Jaylon Tyson CLE 6.1 3.4 1.3
18 Isaiah Stewart DET 6.0 3.0 1.3
19 Tim Hardaway Jr. DET 5.6 2.2 1.1
20 Isaac Okoro CLE 5.6 1.9 1.5
21 Sam Merrill CLE 5.5 1.5 1.1
22 Craig Porter Jr. CLE 5.4 1.7 1.8
23 Marcus Sasser DET 5.0 1.3 2.6
24 Wendell Moore Jr. DET 4.3 2.4 0.5
25 Daniss Jenkins DET 4.2 1.9 1.2
26 Alondes Williams DET 4.2 1.7 2.6
27 Tristan Thompson CLE 3.9 3.4 0.8
28 Paul Reed DET 2.6 2.8 1.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.