NBA games

CHA @ ATL

NBA State Farm Arena ·Final
120–125
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CHA16422735120
ATL28342637125

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 5 (ATL) / 6 (CHA) games this season
CHA away
home ATL
44% 56%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
LaMelo Ball S 29 34 5 4
Miles Bridges S 31 27 5 0
Tre Mann 25 17 3 4
Nick Richards S 30 12 13 2
Grant Williams 29 9 4 6
Seth Curry S 27 9 5 2
Josh Green 18 5 3 2
Cody Martin S 23 3 5 1
Moussa Diabate 10 2 4 0
Vasilije Micic 19 2 6 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Trae Young S 41 38 8 10
De'Andre Hunter S 33 24 7 3
Dyson Daniels S 24 18 1 4
Jalen Johnson S 41 16 7 3
Garrison Mathews 19 8 1 0
Onyeka Okongwu 26 7 8 3
Clint Capela S 22 6 7 1
Zaccharie Risacher 19 5 0 1
Vit Krejci 15 3 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Trae Young · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:33 Q1
"Trae Young makes 25-foot three pointer"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Trae Young ATL
14%
2 Jalen Johnson ATL
12%
3 Clint Capela ATL
12%
4 Nick Richards CHA
12%
5 Dyson Daniels ATL
11%
6 Miles Bridges CHA
11%
7 LaMelo Ball CHA
10%
8 David Roddy ATL
9%
9 De'Andre Hunter ATL
8%
10 Tre Mann CHA
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
51%
Dunk
9%
Free Throw
12%
Jumper
15%
Layup
12%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Trae Young ATL 22.9 3.1 8.7
2 LaMelo Ball CHA 21.7 4.6 6.7
3 Tre Mann CHA 19.3 4.5 3.5
4 Jalen Johnson ATL 17.2 8.0 2.9
5 Tidjane Salaun CHA 12.1 6.6 1.5
6 Zaccharie Risacher ATL 11.8 4.0 1.5
7 Dyson Daniels ATL 11.7 4.5 2.7
8 Miles Bridges CHA 10.2 5.8 2.0
9 David Roddy ATL 8.7 5.2 1.7
10 Nick Richards CHA 7.3 7.5 0.9
11 Clint Capela ATL 6.9 6.7 1.1
12 Vit Krejci ATL 6.5 2.5 3.0
13 De'Andre Hunter ATL 6.4 3.2 1.6
14 Grant Williams CHA 6.2 3.2 1.3
15 Vasilije Micic CHA 6.2 2.6 2.7
16 Seth Curry CHA 6.1 1.9 1.4
17 Moussa Diabate CHA 6.1 5.4 1.1
18 Larry Nance Jr. ATL 5.7 4.8 1.5
19 KJ Simpson CHA 4.7 2.2 1.6
20 Garrison Mathews ATL 4.6 0.9 0.8
21 Keaton Wallace ATL 3.8 1.3 1.8
22 Mouhamed Gueye ATL 3.4 2.9 0.9
23 Taj Gibson CHA 2.7 2.1 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.