NBA games

PHI @ TOR

NBA Scotiabank Arena ·Final
107–115
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHI31252130107
TOR30322132115

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 6 (TOR) / 7 (PHI) games this season
PHI away
home TOR
38% 62%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kelly Oubre Jr. S 39 28 2 2
Tyrese Maxey S 41 24 2 4
Kyle Lowry S 29 14 1 2
Caleb Martin S 34 11 5 4
Andre Drummond S 22 11 9 0
Guerschon Yabusele 17 9 4 1
Eric Gordon 20 8 1 2
KJ Martin 24 2 3 3
Ricky Council IV 4 0 0 0
Jared McCain 4 0 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Scottie Barnes S 36 27 5 4
Jakob Poeltl S 27 19 9 3
Jamison Battle 15 12 6 0
Ochai Agbaji S 26 12 8 1
Jonathan Mogbo 24 12 9 5
Jamal Shead 25 11 2 5
Davion Mitchell S 19 8 3 3
Gradey Dick S 24 8 1 0
Chris Boucher 19 4 3 1
Bruno Fernando 8 2 6 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Scottie Barnes · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:37 Q1
"Scottie Barnes makes dunk"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI
13%
2 Gradey Dick TOR
13%
3 Scottie Barnes TOR
13%
4 Tyrese Maxey PHI
12%
5 Jakob Poeltl TOR
12%
6 Andre Drummond PHI
10%
7 Ochai Agbaji TOR
10%
8 KJ Martin PHI
9%
9 Eric Gordon PHI
7%
10 Jared McCain PHI
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
25%
Dunk
11%
Free Throw
7%
Jumper
26%
Layup
32%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Scottie Barnes TOR 19.4 6.3 4.8
2 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI 15.4 3.4 1.6
3 Gradey Dick TOR 14.8 4.4 1.8
4 Tyrese Maxey PHI 14.1 2.2 3.6
5 Jakob Poeltl TOR 12.8 9.6 3.2
6 Jared McCain PHI 10.8 3.9 1.7
7 Chris Boucher TOR 10.2 3.6 1.2
8 Ochai Agbaji TOR 9.9 4.2 2.1
9 Andre Drummond PHI 9.6 10.1 1.2
10 Caleb Martin PHI 8.9 3.8 1.6
11 Guerschon Yabusele PHI 8.7 4.4 1.9
12 Jamal Shead TOR 8.2 1.3 3.2
13 Ricky Council IV PHI 8.0 2.7 1.3
14 KJ Martin PHI 7.7 3.6 1.2
15 Davion Mitchell TOR 7.3 2.4 4.9
16 Kyle Lowry PHI 6.1 2.3 3.6
17 Jeff Dowtin Jr. PHI 5.7 1.6 2.2
18 Bruno Fernando TOR 5.7 5.2 1.0
19 Eric Gordon PHI 5.1 1.2 0.7
20 Jamison Battle TOR 5.1 1.4 1.0
21 Jonathan Mogbo TOR 5.0 4.1 1.9
22 Lester Quinones PHI 4.9 2.0 0.8
23 D.J. Carton TOR 3.7 1.5 1.3
24 Justin Edwards PHI 3.4 1.4 0.4
25 Reggie Jackson PHI 3.3 0.7 1.4
26 Adem Bona PHI 3.0 2.1 0.6
27 Ulrich Chomche TOR 2.7 2.0 0.8

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.