NBA games

BKN @ ORL

NBA Kia Center ·Final
101–116
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
BKN23232530101
ORL22273235116

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 4 (ORL) / 5 (BKN) games this season
BKN away
home ORL
18% 82%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cam Thomas S 35 24 6 3
Dennis Schroder S 32 20 1 6
Dorian Finney-Smith S 26 15 6 0
Cameron Johnson S 35 12 2 2
Noah Clowney 16 7 2 0
Ziaire Williams 19 7 7 1
Ben Simmons S 24 7 6 3
Nic Claxton 20 4 5 3
Shake Milton 17 3 1 2
Keon Johnson 2 2 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Franz Wagner S 39 29 6 5
Moritz Wagner 15 18 3 0
Paolo Banchero S 37 15 6 9
Anthony Black 26 10 3 5
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope S 26 10 1 2
Jalen Suggs S 22 10 5 1
Wendell Carter Jr. S 31 8 11 4
Gary Harris 16 6 1 0
Cole Anthony 20 4 1 2
Goga Bitadze 6 3 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Franz Wagner · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:44 Q1
"Franz Wagner makes 6-foot two point shot (Paolo Banchero assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Paolo Banchero ORL
14%
2 Franz Wagner ORL
12%
3 Cam Thomas BKN
11%
4 Dennis Schroder BKN
10%
5 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL
10%
6 Jalen Suggs ORL
9%
7 Cameron Johnson BKN
9%
8 Dorian Finney-Smith BKN
9%
9 Ben Simmons BKN
8%
10 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ORL
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
31%
Dunk
12%
Free Throw
16%
Jumper
16%
Layup
24%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Paolo Banchero ORL 20.8 6.7 4.2
2 Cam Thomas BKN 17.8 3.3 2.6
3 Cameron Johnson BKN 13.5 4.1 2.2
4 Dennis Schroder BKN 12.3 2.7 4.9
5 Jalen Wilson BKN 11.9 3.4 2.3
6 Franz Wagner ORL 11.4 3.5 2.1
7 Jalen Suggs ORL 10.5 3.9 3.6
8 Anthony Black ORL 10.4 3.8 4.0
9 Ziaire Williams BKN 10.2 5.5 1.5
10 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 8.8 8.6 1.5
11 Noah Clowney BKN 8.6 4.7 2.1
12 Dorian Finney-Smith BKN 8.2 4.3 1.5
13 Gary Harris ORL 8.1 2.2 0.9
14 Jett Howard ORL 7.5 1.2 1.3
15 Shake Milton BKN 7.4 1.6 1.6
16 Keon Johnson BKN 7.1 3.8 1.6
17 Cole Anthony ORL 6.3 2.2 2.7
18 Ben Simmons BKN 6.2 4.7 4.1
19 Moritz Wagner ORL 5.7 2.9 1.5
20 Goga Bitadze ORL 5.6 6.4 0.5
21 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ORL 5.4 2.5 1.7
22 Tristan da Silva ORL 4.8 2.1 0.7
23 Jaylen Martin BKN 4.7 2.0 0.6
24 Tyrese Martin BKN 3.7 1.5 0.6
25 Caleb Houstan ORL 2.8 1.3 0.6
26 Dariq Whitehead BKN 1.8 0.8 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.