NBA games

MIN @ SAC

NBA Golden 1 Center ·Final
117–115
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIN29263428117
SAC32272927115

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 5 (SAC) / 6 (MIN) games this season
MIN away
home SAC
57% 43%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Julius Randle S 35 33 5 4
Anthony Edwards S 39 32 7 4
Naz Reid 27 19 13 3
Nickeil Alexander-Walker 18 9 1 2
Donte DiVincenzo 27 9 1 2
Jaden McDaniels S 27 6 2 3
Mike Conley S 27 6 2 4
Rudy Gobert S 35 3 11 1
Joe Ingles 5 0 0 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
DeMar DeRozan S 43 26 8 2
Domantas Sabonis S 38 24 8 1
Keegan Murray S 43 23 11 2
Malik Monk 26 17 1 4
De'Aaron Fox S 37 15 2 11
Trey Lyles 11 3 1 1
Alex Len 6 3 2 0
Keon Ellis 11 2 1 0
Kevin Huerter S 20 2 4 0
Doug McDermott 6 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Domantas Sabonis · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:41 Q1
"Domantas Sabonis makes free throw 2 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Domantas Sabonis SAC
12%
2 Keegan Murray SAC
8%
3 De'Aaron Fox SAC
8%
4 Anthony Edwards MIN
8%
5 Rudy Gobert MIN
7%
6 Luka Garza MIN
6%
7 Terrence Shannon Jr. MIN
6%
8 Rob Dillingham MIN
6%
9 Keon Ellis SAC
6%
10 DeMar DeRozan SAC
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
7%
Dunk
11%
Free Throw
36%
Jumper
28%
Layup
18%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Anthony Edwards MIN 22.3 4.4 3.5
2 Domantas Sabonis SAC 21.4 11.1 6.1
3 De'Aaron Fox SAC 17.4 5.4 3.2
4 Luka Garza MIN 15.9 5.6 1.1
5 DeMar DeRozan SAC 14.8 3.0 3.7
6 Keegan Murray SAC 13.3 4.2 1.7
7 Donte DiVincenzo MIN 11.9 3.5 3.7
8 Josh Minott MIN 11.9 5.0 1.5
9 Naz Reid MIN 11.5 4.0 1.9
10 Rudy Gobert MIN 10.0 9.6 1.4
11 Jordan McLaughlin SAC 9.1 2.9 3.9
12 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN 8.3 3.1 1.6
13 Rob Dillingham MIN 8.3 2.1 4.0
14 Jaden McDaniels MIN 7.9 3.3 1.6
15 Malik Monk SAC 7.9 2.7 1.2
16 Keon Ellis SAC 7.9 2.2 1.9
17 Mike Conley MIN 5.3 2.0 1.7
18 Alex Len SAC 5.3 5.1 1.1
19 Terrence Shannon Jr. MIN 4.9 1.9 1.6
20 Leonard Miller MIN 4.3 3.5 0.5
21 Joe Ingles MIN 3.9 2.0 1.9
22 Isaac Jones SAC 3.5 2.2 0.9
23 Colby Jones SAC 3.3 1.2 1.4
24 PJ Dozier MIN 3.0 0.7 0.8

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.