NBA games

OKC @ DEN

NBA Ball Arena ·Final
102–87
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
OKC31272717102
DEN2427171987

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 5 (DEN) / 5 (OKC) games this season
OKC away
home DEN
90% 10%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 36 28 7 8
Chet Holmgren S 36 25 14 5
Aaron Wiggins 20 15 6 1
Jalen Williams S 34 12 3 3
Isaiah Joe S 20 7 2 1
Ousmane Dieng 13 6 3 0
Luguentz Dort S 29 5 2 0
Cason Wallace 23 4 4 0
Adam Flagler 1 0 0 0
Alex Ducas 1 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Christian Braun S 29 16 7 1
Nikola Jokic S 35 16 12 13
Michael Porter Jr. S 32 15 8 2
Aaron Gordon S 33 12 9 2
Jamal Murray S 38 12 6 4
Russell Westbrook 21 6 5 5
Julian Strawther 17 6 0 1
Dario Saric 11 2 1 0
Peyton Watson 15 2 6 1
Trey Alexander 2 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Nikola Jokic · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:30 Q1
"Nikola Jokic makes 24-foot three point jumper (Aaron Gordon assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Nikola Jokic DEN
14%
2 Michael Porter Jr. DEN
13%
3 Jalen Williams OKC
12%
4 Aaron Gordon DEN
10%
5 Christian Braun DEN
10%
6 Chet Holmgren OKC
9%
7 Jamal Murray DEN
8%
8 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
8%
9 Cason Wallace OKC
8%
10 Luguentz Dort OKC
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
24%
Dunk
26%
Free Throw
8%
Jumper
17%
Layup
25%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Julian Strawther DEN 17.9 3.4 2.9
2 Nikola Jokic DEN 17.3 9.4 5.1
3 Michael Porter Jr. DEN 14.4 4.7 1.2
4 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 13.7 3.6 4.1
5 Jalen Williams OKC 13.0 2.9 1.9
6 Dillon Jones OKC 12.4 6.3 3.7
7 Ousmane Dieng OKC 12.3 6.1 3.2
8 Ajay Mitchell OKC 11.0 2.7 1.8
9 Russell Westbrook DEN 11.0 2.5 5.4
10 Chet Holmgren OKC 9.4 4.6 1.3
11 Aaron Gordon DEN 9.3 3.7 3.4
12 Jamal Murray DEN 8.8 1.9 2.2
13 Isaiah Joe OKC 8.3 2.7 1.6
14 Christian Braun DEN 8.0 3.9 1.5
15 Aaron Wiggins OKC 7.8 3.4 2.1
16 Cason Wallace OKC 6.6 4.0 1.7
17 Adam Flagler OKC 5.8 1.2 1.0
18 Luguentz Dort OKC 5.7 3.0 1.3
19 Dario Saric DEN 5.7 3.4 1.3
20 Alex Caruso OKC 4.7 2.0 1.8
21 Zeke Nnaji DEN 4.7 2.6 0.5
22 Alex Ducas OKC 4.5 1.4 0.6
23 Trey Alexander DEN 4.1 2.1 1.8
24 Hunter Tyson DEN 3.7 3.7 0.9
25 Vlatko Cancar DEN 3.5 1.5 1.0
26 Alex Reese OKC 2.9 1.7 0.8
27 Jalen Pickett DEN 2.7 1.0 1.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.