NBA games

SA @ DAL

NBA American Airlines Center ·Final
109–120
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SA22273129109
DAL20274033120

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 4 (DAL) / 5 (SA) games this season
SA away
home DAL
21% 79%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jeremy Sochan S 27 18 6 2
Julian Champagnie S 27 18 7 3
Harrison Barnes S 29 17 4 2
Victor Wembanyama S 28 17 9 1
Stephon Castle 18 8 3 5
Malaki Branham 6 7 2 0
Keldon Johnson 25 7 4 2
Blake Wesley 9 6 0 2
Zach Collins 14 5 5 1
Chris Paul S 29 3 7 8
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Luka Doncic S 36 28 10 8
Klay Thompson S 26 22 7 1
Kyrie Irving S 27 15 3 2
Dereck Lively II 28 15 11 6
Jaden Hardy 20 11 1 2
P.J. Washington S 26 11 5 2
Daniel Gafford S 19 9 6 2
Maxi Kleber 15 3 4 1
Quentin Grimes 15 2 0 0
Naji Marshall 21 2 1 3

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Julian Champagnie · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:20 Q1
"Julian Champagnie makes 25-foot three point jumper (Chris Paul assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jeremy Sochan SA
12%
2 Zach Collins SA
12%
3 Klay Thompson DAL
11%
4 Daniel Gafford DAL
10%
5 Harrison Barnes SA
9%
6 Tre Jones SA
9%
7 Julian Champagnie SA
9%
8 Chris Paul SA
9%
9 Malaki Branham SA
9%
10 Quentin Grimes DAL
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
4%
Dunk
26%
Free Throw
7%
Jumper
43%
Layup
19%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jaden Hardy DAL 17.8 2.7 4.5
2 Keldon Johnson SA 13.4 4.3 1.5
3 Jeremy Sochan SA 12.9 7.1 2.1
4 Stephon Castle SA 11.4 2.8 3.6
5 Malaki Branham SA 11.2 2.3 1.5
6 Julian Champagnie SA 10.9 4.0 1.1
7 Zach Collins SA 9.5 3.2 2.8
8 Jazian Gortman DAL 9.5 2.0 2.0
9 Olivier-Maxence Prosper DAL 9.3 4.0 1.4
10 Quentin Grimes DAL 8.4 4.3 2.5
11 Harrison Barnes SA 8.0 3.1 1.5
12 Chris Paul SA 8.0 2.4 4.8
13 Dereck Lively II DAL 7.4 5.9 1.5
14 Tre Jones SA 7.1 2.7 4.5
15 Naji Marshall DAL 6.9 3.9 1.6
16 Klay Thompson DAL 6.7 2.7 1.7
17 Daniel Gafford DAL 6.6 5.2 1.0
18 Sandro Mamukelashvili SA 6.5 1.7 1.3
19 Spencer Dinwiddie DAL 5.8 1.1 1.5
20 Sidy Cissoko SA 5.5 2.7 1.1
21 Blake Wesley SA 5.1 3.0 4.3
22 Dwight Powell DAL 2.8 1.6 0.9
23 Harrison Ingram SA 1.7 2.1 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.