NBA games

BOS @ WSH

NBA Capital One Arena ·Final
122–102
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
BOS33313424122
WSH32221929102

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 5 (WSH) / 6 (BOS) games this season
BOS away
home WSH
91% 9%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaylen Brown S 30 27 8 3
Jayson Tatum S 29 25 11 6
Derrick White S 29 19 4 4
Payton Pritchard 28 15 1 2
Neemias Queta 14 12 7 0
Xavier Tillman 15 8 1 1
Jrue Holiday S 23 7 2 1
Baylor Scheierman 8 4 1 0
Luke Kornet 16 4 4 1
Jaden Springer 6 1 3 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jordan Poole S 32 26 1 4
Jonas Valanciunas 20 18 5 2
Kyle Kuzma S 28 12 2 1
Marvin Bagley III 10 8 6 1
Bilal Coulibaly S 30 8 6 6
Patrick Baldwin Jr. 8 7 2 1
Corey Kispert 24 6 5 3
Jared Butler 9 6 0 2
Kyshawn George 20 4 3 2
Bub Carrington S 26 3 3 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Derrick White · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:23 Q1
"Derrick White makes 26-foot three pointer"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jayson Tatum BOS
14%
2 Jaylen Brown BOS
11%
3 Kyle Kuzma WSH
10%
4 Jordan Poole WSH
9%
5 Derrick White BOS
8%
6 Bilal Coulibaly WSH
8%
7 Jrue Holiday BOS
8%
8 Jonas Valanciunas WSH
8%
9 Alex Sarr WSH
7%
10 Corey Kispert WSH
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
36%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
3%
Jumper
20%
Layup
37%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jayson Tatum BOS 23.9 5.9 6.4
2 Jaylen Brown BOS 18.5 4.3 2.8
3 Derrick White BOS 15.8 3.4 3.1
4 Payton Pritchard BOS 14.1 3.5 5.5
5 Jordan Poole WSH 11.4 2.2 3.3
6 Corey Kispert WSH 10.3 2.2 1.3
7 Alex Sarr WSH 10.2 4.7 2.1
8 Kyle Kuzma WSH 9.8 4.1 2.5
9 Drew Peterson BOS 9.2 2.5 1.1
10 Jrue Holiday BOS 8.8 2.9 1.5
11 Bilal Coulibaly WSH 8.7 4.2 1.2
12 Luke Kornet BOS 8.0 6.0 1.4
13 Kyshawn George WSH 8.0 2.9 2.2
14 Bub Carrington WSH 7.5 3.6 1.5
15 Jordan Walsh BOS 7.2 3.5 1.4
16 Xavier Tillman BOS 6.1 5.2 1.3
17 Jonas Valanciunas WSH 5.9 5.0 1.3
18 Marvin Bagley III WSH 5.8 4.1 1.5
19 Jared Butler WSH 5.7 1.0 3.3
20 JD Davison BOS 5.0 1.3 1.7
21 Neemias Queta BOS 4.9 4.8 1.4
22 Patrick Baldwin Jr. WSH 4.5 1.7 0.6
23 Justin Champagnie WSH 4.2 2.1 0.5
24 Jaden Springer BOS 4.0 0.8 1.2
25 Johnny Davis WSH 4.0 1.2 0.9
26 Richaun Holmes WSH 3.1 3.0 0.3
27 Anthony Gill WSH 2.9 0.7 0.5
28 Baylor Scheierman BOS 2.8 1.3 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.