NBA games

GS @ POR

NBA Moda Center ·Final
140–104
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
GS21413840140
POR21292232104

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 4 (POR) / 6 (GS) games this season
GS away
home POR
59% 41%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Buddy Hield 15 22 5 1
Andrew Wiggins S 23 20 4 2
Stephen Curry S 25 17 9 10
Moses Moody 15 15 2 2
Trayce Jackson-Davis S 25 14 4 2
De'Anthony Melton 19 11 2 4
Jonathan Kuminga S 20 10 4 1
Gary Payton II 14 8 1 3
Lindy Waters III 5 8 1 0
Draymond Green S 20 8 6 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Scoot Henderson 28 22 4 4
Jerami Grant S 33 16 2 3
Anfernee Simons S 33 15 2 3
Deni Avdija S 27 15 7 2
Toumani Camara S 30 11 6 4
Deandre Ayton S 31 10 11 2
Rayan Rupert 17 6 3 0
Dalano Banton 8 3 1 1
Duop Reath 3 3 1 1
Donovan Clingan 13 2 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jerami Grant · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:43 Q1
"Jerami Grant makes 20-foot pullup jump shot (Deandre Ayton assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Toumani Camara POR
13%
2 Jerami Grant POR
12%
3 Donovan Clingan POR
11%
4 Stephen Curry GS
10%
5 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS
10%
6 Deni Avdija POR
10%
7 Deandre Ayton POR
10%
8 Jonathan Kuminga GS
9%
9 De'Anthony Melton GS
8%
10 Draymond Green GS
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
13%
Dunk
32%
Free Throw
14%
Jumper
23%
Layup
18%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Scoot Henderson POR 17.4 4.4 4.6
2 Toumani Camara POR 15.1 6.3 2.6
3 Moses Moody GS 14.0 3.4 1.5
4 Jerami Grant POR 12.3 2.4 2.1
5 Jonathan Kuminga GS 11.8 4.3 1.3
6 Deni Avdija POR 11.3 4.2 3.8
7 Brandin Podziemski GS 10.5 4.0 3.9
8 Rayan Rupert POR 10.4 3.7 1.9
9 Stephen Curry GS 9.8 2.3 3.0
10 Buddy Hield GS 9.1 2.4 1.7
11 Dalano Banton POR 9.1 3.2 3.6
12 Kris Murray POR 9.1 3.3 1.5
13 Donovan Clingan POR 8.6 9.1 1.1
14 Deandre Ayton POR 8.3 7.4 1.1
15 De'Anthony Melton GS 8.1 2.7 3.2
16 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS 6.6 5.9 2.0
17 Lindy Waters III GS 6.2 3.0 0.6
18 Draymond Green GS 6.1 3.1 2.7
19 Kyle Anderson GS 4.7 2.0 2.0
20 Duop Reath POR 4.5 2.1 0.7
21 Kevon Looney GS 4.2 3.4 1.5
22 Gary Payton II GS 3.3 1.8 1.4
23 Gui Santos GS 1.8 0.8 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.