NBA games

PHX @ LAC

NBA Intuit Dome ·Final
116–113
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q5T
PHX2324253113116
LAC2217352910113

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 5 (LAC) / 5 (PHX) games this season
PHX away
home LAC
35% 65%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kevin Durant S 44 25 7 0
Bradley Beal S 38 24 3 1
Devin Booker S 32 15 4 6
Jusuf Nurkic S 22 11 9 2
Tyus Jones S 35 11 2 8
Grayson Allen 21 8 1 3
Mason Plumlee 14 8 2 1
Monte Morris 13 5 1 2
Royce O'Neale 24 5 5 1
Ryan Dunn 9 2 2 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
James Harden S 40 29 12 8
Ivica Zubac S 34 21 9 3
Norman Powell S 40 17 4 4
Derrick Jones Jr. S 29 12 4 1
Amir Coffey 26 11 3 1
Terance Mann S 27 8 5 4
Kai Jones 13 6 4 0
Kris Dunn 20 5 4 2
Nicolas Batum 24 2 2 2
Kevin Porter Jr. 13 2 4 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Norman Powell · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:43 Q1
"Norman Powell makes 11-foot pullup jump shot (Ivica Zubac assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Nicolas Batum LAC
18%
2 Kevin Durant PHX
11%
3 Devin Booker PHX
10%
4 Ivica Zubac LAC
9%
5 James Harden LAC
8%
6 Derrick Jones Jr. LAC
8%
7 Bradley Beal PHX
8%
8 Norman Powell LAC
8%
9 Tyus Jones PHX
7%
10 Terance Mann LAC
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
30%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
2%
Jumper
11%
Layup
50%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Kevin Durant PHX 17.3 4.9 3.3
2 James Harden LAC 15.1 4.7 7.4
3 Devin Booker PHX 13.6 2.8 2.4
4 Bradley Beal PHX 13.1 3.4 2.4
5 Jordan Miller LAC 9.8 3.1 1.6
6 Bones Hyland LAC 9.1 3.9 1.6
7 Tyus Jones PHX 8.9 1.7 4.6
8 Norman Powell LAC 8.9 2.1 1.3
9 Kai Jones LAC 8.9 5.5 1.4
10 Kevin Porter Jr. LAC 8.8 3.0 3.6
11 Royce O'Neale PHX 7.6 3.9 1.6
12 Ryan Dunn PHX 7.6 3.6 1.2
13 Amir Coffey LAC 7.5 1.9 0.7
14 Ivica Zubac LAC 7.3 5.7 1.0
15 Monte Morris PHX 7.1 2.2 3.1
16 Oso Ighodaro PHX 6.6 4.0 2.1
17 Kobe Brown LAC 6.3 5.3 1.8
18 Derrick Jones Jr. LAC 6.0 1.9 0.5
19 Terance Mann LAC 5.2 2.4 0.7
20 Bol Bol PHX 4.6 3.9 0.8
21 Mason Plumlee PHX 4.4 4.3 1.3
22 Kris Dunn LAC 4.3 2.2 0.9
23 Damion Lee PHX 2.6 0.6 0.5
24 Cam Christie LAC 2.5 1.2 0.4
25 Nicolas Batum LAC 2.1 2.6 0.8

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.