NBA games

MEM @ UTAH

NBA Delta Center ·Final
126–124
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MEM29323233126
UTAH23273638124

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 6 (UTAH) / 5 (MEM) games this season
MEM away
home UTAH
41% 59%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Santi Aldama S 31 27 5 2
Desmond Bane S 27 24 4 4
Ja Morant S 28 22 5 10
Jay Huff 22 13 5 1
Marcus Smart S 26 11 5 1
Jaylen Wells 23 6 0 1
Scotty Pippen Jr. 22 6 3 7
John Konchar 15 5 5 1
Zach Edey S 15 5 5 0
Jake LaRavia 16 5 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Lauri Markkanen S 35 35 9 2
Jordan Clarkson 25 17 5 7
Walker Kessler S 30 16 14 1
Collin Sexton S 25 16 2 3
Taylor Hendricks S 29 12 5 0
Keyonte George S 31 12 2 7
John Collins 18 11 5 0
Brice Sensabaugh 12 3 2 0
Cody Williams 19 2 4 0
Patty Mills 16 0 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Collin Sexton · Layup (2 pts) · 10:50 Q1
"Collin Sexton makes two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Desmond Bane MEM
14%
2 Lauri Markkanen UTAH
14%
3 Walker Kessler UTAH
12%
4 Keyonte George UTAH
11%
5 Zach Edey MEM
11%
6 Collin Sexton UTAH
11%
7 Taylor Hendricks UTAH
10%
8 Marcus Smart MEM
8%
9 Santi Aldama MEM
8%
10 Jay Huff MEM
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
33%
Dunk
9%
Free Throw
7%
Jumper
40%
Layup
11%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Desmond Bane MEM 19.8 4.5 4.0
2 Lauri Markkanen UTAH 16.6 4.6 1.5
3 Keyonte George UTAH 14.8 2.4 3.5
4 Jaylen Wells MEM 14.6 3.7 2.6
5 Collin Sexton UTAH 14.4 4.0 4.0
6 Zach Edey MEM 11.5 7.4 1.1
7 Santi Aldama MEM 10.9 5.0 2.7
8 Jordan Clarkson UTAH 10.6 3.9 2.4
9 Brice Sensabaugh UTAH 10.0 3.5 1.9
10 John Collins UTAH 9.3 5.3 1.5
11 Scotty Pippen Jr. MEM 9.1 2.4 3.6
12 Jake LaRavia MEM 8.9 5.5 2.2
13 Taylor Hendricks UTAH 8.6 3.8 1.3
14 Cody Williams UTAH 8.1 2.7 1.7
15 Walker Kessler UTAH 8.0 9.3 1.5
16 Jay Huff MEM 7.2 4.0 1.1
17 Marcus Smart MEM 6.4 1.5 3.3
18 Drew Eubanks UTAH 6.2 5.0 0.5
19 Brandon Clarke MEM 6.0 1.8 1.4
20 John Konchar MEM 5.5 4.6 1.5
21 Kyle Filipowski UTAH 4.8 3.7 1.7
22 Yuki Kawamura MEM 4.2 0.7 3.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.