NBA games

CHA @ HOU

NBA Toyota Center (Houston) ·Final
110–105
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CHA21283031110
HOU26342322105

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 4 (HOU) / 5 (CHA) games this season
CHA away
home HOU
54% 46%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
LaMelo Ball S 38 34 8 11
Tre Mann 29 24 6 1
Miles Bridges S 32 10 9 2
Cody Martin S 24 8 8 1
Grant Williams 25 8 4 1
Seth Curry 26 7 2 1
Nick Richards S 24 6 8 1
Brandon Miller S 11 6 1 1
Vasilije Micic 17 5 5 1
Moussa Diabate 15 2 5 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Green S 35 28 2 0
Alperen Sengun S 34 25 18 5
Fred VanVleet S 37 14 4 6
Amen Thompson 22 13 4 0
Jabari Smith Jr. S 33 8 5 1
Jock Landale 10 5 3 2
Cam Whitmore 8 4 0 0
Reed Sheppard 16 4 2 3
Dillon Brooks S 31 2 3 0
Tari Eason 13 2 2 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
LaMelo Ball · 3PT (3 pts) · 10:21 Q1
"LaMelo Ball makes 28-foot three point shot (Miles Bridges assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Alperen Sengun HOU
15%
2 Nick Richards CHA
10%
3 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU
10%
4 Jalen Green HOU
9%
5 Miles Bridges CHA
9%
6 Brandon Miller CHA
9%
7 Dillon Brooks HOU
8%
8 Fred VanVleet HOU
8%
9 LaMelo Ball CHA
8%
10 Grant Williams CHA
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
8%
Dunk
54%
Free Throw
7%
Jumper
9%
Layup
22%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Alperen Sengun HOU 19.2 7.6 3.2
2 Jalen Green HOU 18.5 3.6 1.7
3 Tre Mann CHA 16.7 3.7 3.2
4 LaMelo Ball CHA 16.4 3.6 5.5
5 Brandon Miller CHA 15.7 3.9 2.3
6 Dillon Brooks HOU 12.2 4.1 2.0
7 Amen Thompson HOU 11.7 5.6 1.8
8 Tidjane Salaun CHA 11.2 6.6 1.4
9 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 9.2 6.1 1.8
10 Cam Whitmore HOU 8.5 2.4 2.0
11 Fred VanVleet HOU 8.2 1.9 5.9
12 Miles Bridges CHA 7.9 4.2 1.5
13 Reed Sheppard HOU 6.5 3.1 2.0
14 Nick Richards CHA 6.0 6.8 0.6
15 Moussa Diabate CHA 5.4 4.7 1.0
16 Grant Williams CHA 4.5 2.2 0.9
17 KJ Simpson CHA 4.5 2.1 1.5
18 Vasilije Micic CHA 4.4 1.5 2.7
19 Seth Curry CHA 4.2 1.2 1.2
20 Aaron Holiday HOU 3.7 1.0 0.5
21 Nate Williams HOU 2.9 0.8 0.4
22 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 2.7 2.4 0.7
23 Taj Gibson CHA 2.4 1.9 0.2
24 Jared Rhoden CHA 2.1 1.5 0.5
25 N'Faly Dante HOU 2.0 1.9 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.