NBA games

CLE @ TOR

NBA Scotiabank Arena ·Final
136–106
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CLE33363631136
TOR32173027106

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 5 (TOR) / 4 (CLE) games this season
CLE away
home TOR
37% 63%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Evan Mobley S 27 25 9 3
Donovan Mitchell S 28 21 2 3
Caris LeVert 21 19 1 4
Jarrett Allen S 26 14 7 1
Ty Jerome 19 14 2 6
Georges Niang 19 11 1 0
Sam Merrill 16 7 0 1
Darius Garland S 23 7 1 6
Dean Wade S 20 5 8 1
Jaylon Tyson 7 4 2 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Chris Boucher 20 18 2 1
Gradey Dick S 29 16 2 1
Immanuel Quickley S 14 13 2 4
Jamal Shead 19 10 1 4
Scottie Barnes S 26 9 6 5
Davion Mitchell 25 8 0 3
Jonathan Mogbo 11 7 0 0
Jamison Battle 16 6 2 1
Bruno Fernando 15 6 7 1
Jakob Poeltl S 26 6 9 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Evan Mobley · Layup (2 pts) · 11:38 Q1
"Evan Mobley makes tip shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jarrett Allen CLE
14%
2 Evan Mobley CLE
13%
3 Scottie Barnes TOR
13%
4 Gradey Dick TOR
13%
5 Jakob Poeltl TOR
12%
6 Donovan Mitchell CLE
11%
7 Darius Garland CLE
8%
8 Ochai Agbaji TOR
8%
9 Dean Wade CLE
7%
10 Georges Niang CLE
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
68%
Free Throw
4%
Jumper
8%
Layup
18%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Scottie Barnes TOR 21.9 6.3 4.9
2 Donovan Mitchell CLE 18.4 3.5 4.3
3 Darius Garland CLE 17.6 2.4 4.5
4 Evan Mobley CLE 16.3 7.3 3.0
5 Jarrett Allen CLE 15.9 8.9 2.2
6 Gradey Dick TOR 15.0 4.3 1.7
7 Jakob Poeltl TOR 13.7 10.4 3.4
8 Ochai Agbaji TOR 10.7 3.9 2.3
9 Caris LeVert CLE 9.6 2.7 4.7
10 Chris Boucher TOR 9.0 3.5 0.8
11 Ty Jerome CLE 7.6 2.3 2.7
12 Dean Wade CLE 7.5 4.0 1.4
13 Jamal Shead TOR 7.2 1.0 2.7
14 Davion Mitchell TOR 6.3 2.4 5.2
15 Georges Niang CLE 6.2 2.3 0.7
16 Jaylon Tyson CLE 6.2 3.6 1.3
17 Craig Porter Jr. CLE 5.0 1.6 2.0
18 Bruno Fernando TOR 4.9 4.7 0.8
19 Isaac Okoro CLE 4.6 1.4 1.1
20 Jamison Battle TOR 4.4 0.9 0.8
21 Jonathan Mogbo TOR 4.4 4.9 2.1
22 Ulrich Chomche TOR 2.2 1.8 0.8

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.