NBA games

MIL @ PHI

NBA Xfinity Mobile Arena ·Final
124–109
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIL22364224124
PHI23243428109

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 6 (PHI) / 4 (MIL) games this season
MIL away
home PHI
36% 64%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Damian Lillard S 38 30 9 6
Giannis Antetokounmpo S 31 25 14 7
Taurean Prince S 30 16 5 3
Bobby Portis 26 16 3 3
Gary Trent Jr. S 34 11 2 0
Brook Lopez S 36 10 8 6
Pat Connaughton 21 9 4 1
Tyler Smith 2 5 1 0
Delon Wright 13 2 0 0
MarJon Beauchamp 1 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyrese Maxey S 39 25 6 3
Kelly Oubre Jr. S 30 21 2 1
Kyle Lowry 24 13 4 6
Caleb Martin 37 12 9 3
Guerschon Yabusele 26 10 4 3
Andre Drummond S 25 10 13 0
Ricky Council IV 9 7 1 0
Jared McCain 4 4 2 0
KJ Martin S 15 3 5 0
Eric Gordon S 22 2 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Giannis Antetokounmpo · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:26 Q1
"Giannis Antetokounmpo makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Damian Lillard MIL
13%
2 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI
12%
3 Andre Drummond PHI
10%
4 Tyrese Maxey PHI
10%
5 KJ Martin PHI
9%
6 Gary Trent Jr. MIL
9%
7 AJ Johnson MIL
8%
8 Tyler Smith MIL
8%
9 Eric Gordon PHI
7%
10 Taurean Prince MIL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
58%
Dunk
14%
Free Throw
6%
Jumper
13%
Layup
10%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Damian Lillard MIL 15.5 3.9 5.4
2 Bobby Portis MIL 13.9 3.8 1.4
3 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI 13.9 3.3 1.5
4 Jared McCain PHI 12.9 4.5 1.9
5 Tyrese Maxey PHI 10.2 1.5 3.3
6 Andre Drummond PHI 9.3 11.1 1.2
7 KJ Martin PHI 7.9 3.5 1.2
8 Ricky Council IV PHI 7.8 3.1 1.3
9 Guerschon Yabusele PHI 7.7 4.5 1.4
10 AJ Johnson MIL 7.3 2.6 3.9
11 Gary Trent Jr. MIL 6.6 2.0 1.2
12 Caleb Martin PHI 6.6 2.6 1.2
13 Pat Connaughton MIL 5.5 2.0 1.8
14 Jeff Dowtin Jr. PHI 5.3 1.7 2.4
15 Brook Lopez MIL 5.0 3.2 0.9
16 Lester Quinones PHI 4.7 2.1 0.6
17 Taurean Prince MIL 4.5 3.1 1.0
18 Ryan Rollins MIL 4.4 2.1 1.3
19 Kyle Lowry PHI 4.3 1.9 3.0
20 Tyler Smith MIL 4.2 4.7 0.4
21 Eric Gordon PHI 4.2 0.9 0.5
22 Justin Edwards PHI 4.0 1.6 0.5
23 AJ Green MIL 3.9 1.4 1.1
24 Reggie Jackson PHI 3.8 0.9 1.4
25 Delon Wright MIL 3.6 1.0 1.2
26 MarJon Beauchamp MIL 3.4 1.6 1.0
27 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 2.5 2.6 0.7
28 Adem Bona PHI 2.5 2.1 0.4
29 Chris Livingston MIL 2.3 1.6 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.