NBA games

ORL @ MIA

NBA Kaseya Center ·Final
116–97
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ORL32263919116
MIA3222182597

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 5 (MIA) / 3 (ORL) games this season
ORL away
home MIA
64% 36%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Paolo Banchero S 31 33 11 3
Franz Wagner S 23 23 4 4
Gary Harris 22 18 3 1
Jalen Suggs S 13 11 2 4
Anthony Black 28 10 6 4
Wendell Carter Jr. S 27 8 14 2
Moritz Wagner 16 7 6 2
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope S 25 3 1 2
Jonathan Isaac 11 3 3 0
Jett Howard 5 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Terry Rozier S 32 19 6 5
Nikola Jovic S 24 15 5 1
Tyler Herro S 29 14 5 3
Jaime Jaquez Jr. 19 13 5 3
Bam Adebayo S 26 9 5 1
Haywood Highsmith 30 9 5 2
Thomas Bryant 16 7 3 2
Duncan Robinson 20 6 1 1
Jimmy Butler III S 26 3 4 5
Pelle Larsson 6 2 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Bam Adebayo · Free Throw (1 pts) · 10:59 Q1
"Bam Adebayo makes free throw 2 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Paolo Banchero ORL
11%
2 Tyler Herro MIA
10%
3 Franz Wagner ORL
9%
4 Jalen Suggs ORL
9%
5 Terry Rozier MIA
8%
6 Bam Adebayo MIA
8%
7 Thomas Bryant MIA
8%
8 Nikola Jovic MIA
8%
9 Jimmy Butler III MIA
8%
10 Pelle Larsson MIA
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
12%
Dunk
30%
Free Throw
4%
Jumper
18%
Layup
37%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Paolo Banchero ORL 15.5 5.7 3.9
2 Tyler Herro MIA 14.3 3.7 3.4
3 Jimmy Butler III MIA 10.7 3.3 1.7
4 Jalen Suggs ORL 10.3 4.3 3.4
5 Bam Adebayo MIA 10.1 4.7 1.8
6 Anthony Black ORL 9.5 2.8 4.2
7 Jett Howard ORL 8.6 1.5 1.4
8 Franz Wagner ORL 7.2 2.5 1.3
9 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 7.2 4.0 2.5
10 Terry Rozier MIA 6.8 4.0 2.4
11 Haywood Highsmith MIA 6.7 2.9 0.5
12 Kel'el Ware MIA 6.7 4.9 0.6
13 Goga Bitadze ORL 6.1 8.5 0.5
14 Duncan Robinson MIA 6.1 1.7 2.1
15 Nikola Jovic MIA 5.9 2.0 1.7
16 Cole Anthony ORL 5.8 1.6 1.6
17 Pelle Larsson MIA 5.5 1.5 1.5
18 Alec Burks MIA 5.1 2.0 1.1
19 Tristan da Silva ORL 4.8 2.1 0.6
20 Moritz Wagner ORL 4.5 2.0 1.3
21 Dru Smith MIA 4.3 1.7 2.2
22 Thomas Bryant MIA 3.8 2.0 0.5
23 Kevin Love MIA 3.0 0.7 0.4
24 Caleb Houstan ORL 2.2 0.8 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.