NBA games

BKN @ ATL

NBA State Farm Arena ·Final
116–120
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
BKN24312833116
ATL30213237120

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 4 (ATL) / 4 (BKN) games this season
BKN away
home ATL
32% 68%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cam Thomas S 34 36 5 3
Jalen Wilson 34 16 4 1
Cameron Johnson S 32 14 4 0
Dennis Schroder S 34 13 3 7
Ziaire Williams 16 9 3 1
Dorian Finney-Smith S 30 8 8 1
Nic Claxton 15 7 5 0
Noah Clowney 15 7 6 0
Ben Simmons S 24 6 5 8
Shake Milton 6 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Trae Young S 37 30 5 12
Onyeka Okongwu 28 28 8 1
Dyson Daniels S 35 15 5 2
De'Andre Hunter S 26 12 6 1
Jalen Johnson S 37 11 10 4
Bogdan Bogdanovic 28 8 2 2
Zaccharie Risacher 19 7 1 0
Clint Capela S 20 6 7 1
Vit Krejci 11 3 1 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
De'Andre Hunter · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:41 Q1
"De'Andre Hunter makes 25-foot three pointer"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Cam Thomas BKN
12%
2 Jalen Johnson ATL
10%
3 Clint Capela ATL
9%
4 Dyson Daniels ATL
9%
5 Dennis Schroder BKN
8%
6 Dorian Finney-Smith BKN
8%
7 David Roddy ATL
8%
8 Ben Simmons BKN
7%
9 Trae Young ATL
7%
10 Vit Krejci ATL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
44%
Dunk
17%
Free Throw
4%
Jumper
18%
Layup
17%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Johnson ATL 16.9 7.4 3.1
2 Cameron Johnson BKN 16.3 4.2 2.7
3 Cam Thomas BKN 15.7 3.1 2.1
4 Trae Young ATL 14.3 1.9 7.5
5 Dennis Schroder BKN 12.5 2.7 4.7
6 Jalen Wilson BKN 11.8 3.3 2.5
7 Ziaire Williams BKN 11.2 6.5 1.8
8 Dyson Daniels ATL 11.0 3.9 2.4
9 David Roddy ATL 9.5 5.3 1.7
10 Noah Clowney BKN 9.2 4.4 2.5
11 Shake Milton BKN 8.8 1.9 2.1
12 Dorian Finney-Smith BKN 7.8 3.4 1.5
13 Keon Johnson BKN 7.7 4.1 1.8
14 Vit Krejci ATL 7.0 2.5 3.3
15 Clint Capela ATL 6.5 6.1 0.9
16 Larry Nance Jr. ATL 6.1 5.0 1.5
17 Ben Simmons BKN 5.9 4.6 2.8
18 Jaylen Martin BKN 5.3 2.2 0.8
19 Garrison Mathews ATL 5.2 1.0 0.9
20 Tyrese Martin BKN 4.4 1.7 0.8
21 Keaton Wallace ATL 4.1 1.4 2.0
22 Mouhamed Gueye ATL 3.9 3.0 0.9
23 Dariq Whitehead BKN 2.5 1.1 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.