NBA games

IND @ DET

NBA Little Caesars Arena ·Final
115–109
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
IND25243333115
DET31273219109

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 5 (DET) / 4 (IND) games this season
IND away
home DET
68% 32%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Myles Turner S 36 20 9 4
Pascal Siakam S 32 19 8 9
Bennedict Mathurin 28 19 6 1
Tyrese Haliburton S 35 15 5 4
T.J. McConnell 16 14 2 4
Andrew Nembhard S 35 8 2 7
Aaron Nesmith S 19 7 2 0
James Wiseman 5 6 1 0
Jarace Walker 6 3 1 1
Enrique Freeman 7 2 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cade Cunningham S 37 28 5 8
Jaden Ivey S 31 17 5 4
Tim Hardaway Jr. S 29 14 1 1
Malik Beasley 28 14 3 1
Tobias Harris S 36 13 2 1
Jalen Duren S 30 13 13 4
Ronald Holland II 15 6 3 0
Isaiah Stewart 17 2 4 2
Marcus Sasser 3 2 1 1
Simone Fontecchio 15 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Tim Hardaway Jr. · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:45 Q1
"Tim Hardaway Jr. makes 25-foot three point jumper (Cade Cunningham assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Myles Turner IND
13%
2 Jalen Duren DET
11%
3 Tim Hardaway Jr. DET
10%
4 Jaden Ivey DET
10%
5 Obi Toppin IND
9%
6 Tobias Harris DET
9%
7 Pascal Siakam IND
8%
8 Cade Cunningham DET
8%
9 Andrew Nembhard IND
8%
10 Tyrese Haliburton IND
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
28%
Dunk
11%
Free Throw
7%
Jumper
41%
Layup
14%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jaden Ivey DET 15.8 3.4 3.0
2 Cade Cunningham DET 13.9 5.4 5.9
3 Myles Turner IND 13.2 5.1 2.0
4 Bennedict Mathurin IND 12.5 2.7 2.6
5 Tobias Harris DET 11.3 4.3 2.2
6 Tyrese Haliburton IND 9.2 2.7 4.1
7 Jarace Walker IND 9.1 3.6 2.1
8 Jalen Duren DET 9.0 7.4 1.6
9 Pascal Siakam IND 8.7 3.2 2.8
10 Ronald Holland II DET 8.3 3.6 2.4
11 T.J. McConnell IND 8.0 2.3 3.7
12 Enrique Freeman IND 7.7 5.8 1.2
13 Ben Sheppard IND 7.7 1.9 1.5
14 Simone Fontecchio DET 7.1 2.8 0.9
15 Andrew Nembhard IND 6.8 1.8 2.1
16 James Wiseman IND 6.7 5.4 0.5
17 Cole Swider DET 6.6 3.3 1.1
18 Obi Toppin IND 6.4 2.6 1.3
19 Malik Beasley DET 6.1 2.1 1.2
20 Quenton Jackson IND 6.0 1.9 1.5
21 Isaiah Stewart DET 5.7 2.5 0.8
22 Aaron Nesmith IND 5.0 1.6 0.9
23 Wendell Moore Jr. DET 5.0 2.9 0.5
24 Marcus Sasser DET 4.9 1.0 2.5
25 Daniss Jenkins DET 4.9 2.3 1.2
26 Alondes Williams DET 4.4 2.1 2.6
27 Tim Hardaway Jr. DET 3.7 1.9 0.6
28 Paul Reed DET 3.2 3.3 1.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.