NBA games

MIN @ LAL

NBA crypto.com Arena ·Final
103110
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIN23193229103
LAL22332728110

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 6 (LAL) / 5 (MIN) games this season
MIN away
home LAL
31% 69%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Edwards S 41 27 6 3
Julius Randle S 34 16 9 4
Nickeil Alexander-Walker 28 14 5 0
Rudy Gobert S 35 13 14 2
Naz Reid 26 12 4 1
Donte DiVincenzo 32 10 3 3
Jaden McDaniels S 16 6 2 1
Mike Conley S 20 5 4 2
Joe Ingles 7 0 0 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Davis S 38 36 16 4
Rui Hachimura S 35 18 5 1
LeBron James S 35 16 5 4
Austin Reaves S 36 12 9 4
Jaxson Hayes 15 10 4 0
D'Angelo Russell S 34 9 1 5
Dalton Knecht 16 5 1 2
Max Christie 11 2 2 0
Gabe Vincent 17 2 2 2
Bronny James 3 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Rui Hachimura · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:18 Q1
"Rui Hachimura makes 26-foot three point jumper (Anthony Davis assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Anthony Edwards MIN
8%
2 Austin Reaves LAL
7%
3 Anthony Davis LAL
6%
4 D'Angelo Russell LAL
6%
5 Rui Hachimura LAL
6%
6 Rudy Gobert MIN
5%
7 Luka Garza MIN
5%
8 Terrence Shannon Jr. MIN
5%
9 Jaden McDaniels MIN
5%
10 Rob Dillingham MIN
5%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
32%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
39%
Jumper
8%
Layup
17%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Anthony Davis LAL 23.8 10.1 2.9
2 Anthony Edwards MIN 21.8 4.1 4.3
3 Dalton Knecht LAL 17.8 4.5 2.4
4 Luka Garza MIN 15.8 6.1 1.3
5 Austin Reaves LAL 14.5 5.2 4.3
6 Josh Minott MIN 12.8 5.5 1.7
7 LeBron James LAL 12.8 4.6 3.5
8 Donte DiVincenzo MIN 12.5 3.7 4.1
9 Rui Hachimura LAL 12.5 6.7 1.5
10 Naz Reid MIN 11.4 4.5 1.9
11 D'Angelo Russell LAL 11.3 2.5 4.8
12 Rob Dillingham MIN 9.2 2.4 4.7
13 Rudy Gobert MIN 9.1 10.1 1.3
14 Jaden McDaniels MIN 8.3 3.5 1.6
15 Max Christie LAL 8.0 3.3 1.1
16 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN 7.0 2.7 1.8
17 Jalen Hood-Schifino LAL 6.5 2.5 4.0
18 Jaxson Hayes LAL 6.1 5.9 1.5
19 Terrence Shannon Jr. MIN 5.7 2.6 1.8
20 Leonard Miller MIN 5.1 4.0 0.7
21 Mike Conley MIN 4.9 1.5 1.3
22 Gabe Vincent LAL 4.9 0.9 0.9
23 Bronny James LAL 4.6 1.9 0.8
24 Joe Ingles MIN 4.3 2.2 2.2
25 Cam Reddish LAL 4.3 2.1 0.9
26 PJ Dozier MIN 3.8 1.1 1.0
27 Maxwell Lewis LAL 3.6 1.8 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.