NBA games

NY @ BOS

NBA TD Garden ·Final
109–132
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NY24313222109
BOS43313919132

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 5 (BOS) / 5 (NY) games this season
NY away
home BOS
10% 90%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Miles McBride 26 22 0 2
Jalen Brunson S 25 22 1 2
Mikal Bridges S 35 16 0 2
Josh Hart S 25 12 4 3
Karl-Anthony Towns S 24 12 7 3
Cameron Payne 21 11 3 4
Jericho Sims 24 4 9 1
OG Anunoby S 34 4 5 3
Pacome Dadiet 13 3 1 0
Tyler Kolek 5 3 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jayson Tatum S 30 37 4 10
Derrick White S 27 24 3 4
Jaylen Brown S 30 23 7 1
Jrue Holiday S 31 18 4 4
Al Horford S 26 11 3 5
Sam Hauser 24 10 5 1
Luke Kornet 19 4 3 1
Payton Pritchard 25 3 4 4
Xavier Tillman 18 2 7 2
Neemias Queta 4 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jayson Tatum · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:48 Q1
"Jayson Tatum makes 26-foot three pointer (Derrick White assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jaylen Brown BOS
11%
2 Karl-Anthony Towns NY
11%
3 Jayson Tatum BOS
10%
4 Josh Hart NY
10%
5 Mikal Bridges NY
10%
6 Jalen Brunson NY
9%
7 OG Anunoby NY
8%
8 Jrue Holiday BOS
7%
9 Derrick White BOS
7%
10 Miles McBride NY
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
12%
Dunk
15%
Free Throw
14%
Jumper
42%
Layup
16%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Brunson NY 21.9 2.6 4.4
2 Jayson Tatum BOS 18.8 5.9 5.1
3 Miles McBride NY 18.6 2.0 3.3
4 Karl-Anthony Towns NY 17.5 9.5 1.9
5 Jaylen Brown BOS 16.8 3.7 2.7
6 Payton Pritchard BOS 14.1 3.5 5.5
7 Cameron Payne NY 13.2 2.7 4.4
8 Derrick White BOS 12.0 3.3 2.6
9 Mikal Bridges NY 11.0 2.9 1.3
10 Tyler Kolek NY 10.6 2.7 4.0
11 OG Anunoby NY 9.8 4.3 1.4
12 Jordan Walsh BOS 7.3 3.3 1.2
13 Luke Kornet BOS 7.2 6.1 1.3
14 Sam Hauser BOS 6.3 4.6 1.2
15 Xavier Tillman BOS 5.3 4.3 1.0
16 Jrue Holiday BOS 5.1 1.8 0.7
17 Josh Hart NY 4.7 3.4 2.4
18 Neemias Queta BOS 4.3 5.0 1.3
19 Jaden Springer BOS 3.8 0.8 1.2
20 Ariel Hukporti NY 3.2 2.8 0.3
21 Baylor Scheierman BOS 2.8 1.3 0.5
22 Jericho Sims NY 2.6 5.1 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.