NBA games

POR @ LAC

NBA Intuit Dome ·Final
105–127
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
POR31272027105
LAC36272836127

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAC) / 10 (POR) games this season
POR away
home LAC
32% 68%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Deandre Ayton S 33 16 3 2
Deni Avdija 23 15 3 3
Shaedon Sharpe S 27 15 4 1
Dalano Banton 21 14 2 3
Jerami Grant S 35 12 4 4
Toumani Camara S 29 9 4 1
Anfernee Simons S 30 7 2 6
Duop Reath 7 6 0 0
Jabari Walker 15 6 5 1
Rayan Rupert 14 3 2 4
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Norman Powell S 25 30 4 5
James Harden S 32 23 1 7
Amir Coffey 23 19 2 3
Derrick Jones Jr. S 25 15 4 1
Jordan Miller 24 14 4 3
Ivica Zubac S 28 8 10 2
Kris Dunn S 20 7 2 3
Terance Mann 13 5 0 0
Mo Bamba 17 3 3 0
Bones Hyland 7 3 1 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Norman Powell · Layup (2 pts) · 11:42 Q1
"Norman Powell makes layup (James Harden assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Ivica Zubac LAC
11%
2 Deandre Ayton POR
11%
3 Shaedon Sharpe POR
10%
4 Jerami Grant POR
9%
5 James Harden LAC
9%
6 Derrick Jones Jr. LAC
8%
7 Norman Powell LAC
7%
8 Robert Williams III POR
7%
9 Toumani Camara POR
7%
10 Anfernee Simons POR
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
29%
Free Throw
10%
Jumper
30%
Layup
30%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 James Harden LAC 25.7 5.9 9.0
2 Norman Powell LAC 22.1 3.4 3.4
3 Shaedon Sharpe POR 20.6 3.8 3.4
4 Anfernee Simons POR 16.9 3.0 3.9
5 Deni Avdija POR 16.3 6.3 3.7
6 Ivica Zubac LAC 16.0 11.5 2.8
7 Deandre Ayton POR 15.6 9.5 1.8
8 Jerami Grant POR 12.8 3.1 2.7
9 Dalano Banton POR 11.0 3.6 3.5
10 Scoot Henderson POR 10.7 2.8 4.9
11 Toumani Camara POR 10.6 5.2 2.8
12 Amir Coffey LAC 10.4 3.0 1.6
13 Derrick Jones Jr. LAC 9.5 3.7 1.3
14 Kris Dunn LAC 7.2 3.8 2.3
15 Robert Williams III POR 7.0 5.8 1.0
16 Terance Mann LAC 7.0 2.4 1.8
17 Jordan Miller LAC 7.0 2.2 1.3
18 Mo Bamba LAC 5.7 4.3 0.9
19 Nicolas Batum LAC 5.5 2.5 1.3
20 Donovan Clingan POR 5.4 7.4 0.6
21 Bones Hyland LAC 4.3 1.6 0.8
22 Kris Murray POR 4.0 2.1 0.7
23 Rayan Rupert POR 3.4 1.6 0.7
24 Jabari Walker POR 2.7 2.3 0.7
25 Kai Jones LAC 2.3 1.9 0.3
26 Duop Reath POR 1.4 0.9 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.