NBA games

HOU @ SAC

NBA Golden 1 Center ·Final
111–120
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
HOU28272927111
SAC21334224120

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SAC) / 10 (HOU) games this season
HOU away
home SAC
61% 39%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Green S 34 28 7 3
Alperen Sengun S 32 24 8 6
Tari Eason 25 16 12 1
Fred VanVleet S 37 13 2 1
Dillon Brooks S 24 8 3 0
Jabari Smith Jr. S 36 6 7 1
Aaron Holiday 5 6 2 0
Reed Sheppard 11 6 0 1
Amen Thompson 24 3 6 1
Steven Adams 11 1 6 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Domantas Sabonis S 32 27 7 4
De'Aaron Fox S 37 22 6 7
Malik Monk S 35 17 2 12
DeMar DeRozan S 34 16 5 5
Kevin Huerter 25 13 2 2
Keegan Murray S 40 13 7 1
Isaac Jones 18 12 2 0
Jae Crowder 12 0 1 2
Jordan McLaughlin 2 0 0 0
Doug McDermott 2 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Alperen Sengun · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:17 Q1
"Alperen Sengun makes 17-foot jumper (Jalen Green assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Alperen Sengun HOU
13%
2 De'Aaron Fox SAC
13%
3 DeMar DeRozan SAC
11%
4 Fred VanVleet HOU
10%
5 Jalen Green HOU
10%
6 Malik Monk SAC
9%
7 Domantas Sabonis SAC
8%
8 Dillon Brooks HOU
8%
9 Keegan Murray SAC
8%
10 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
6%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
11%
Jumper
35%
Layup
41%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 De'Aaron Fox SAC 29.9 4.4 7.5
2 Domantas Sabonis SAC 23.5 12.1 6.2
3 DeMar DeRozan SAC 22.5 4.7 4.8
4 Alperen Sengun HOU 21.7 10.1 6.5
5 Fred VanVleet HOU 20.6 4.4 6.4
6 Jalen Green HOU 18.7 4.8 2.8
7 Malik Monk SAC 16.6 4.1 4.4
8 Amen Thompson HOU 14.1 7.7 2.3
9 Dillon Brooks HOU 13.4 3.8 2.3
10 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 12.6 6.3 1.3
11 Keegan Murray SAC 11.3 6.7 1.6
12 Tari Eason HOU 10.2 7.1 1.3
13 Kevin Huerter SAC 7.8 3.3 1.8
14 Keon Ellis SAC 7.5 2.9 1.2
15 Jae Crowder SAC 6.6 3.4 0.8
16 Reed Sheppard HOU 4.4 1.5 1.0
17 Isaac Jones SAC 4.2 2.2 0.5
18 Steven Adams HOU 3.3 2.4 1.1
19 Aaron Holiday HOU 3.3 0.8 0.9
20 Jordan McLaughlin SAC 2.9 1.1 0.9
21 Jock Landale HOU 2.8 3.0 0.7
22 Doug McDermott SAC 2.6 0.9 0.4
23 Orlando Robinson SAC 2.5 1.5 0.6
24 Jeff Green HOU 2.3 0.9 0.3
25 Colby Jones SAC 2.2 1.3 0.6
26 Jack McVeigh HOU 2.1 0.8 0.3
27 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 1.9 1.7 0.3
28 Alex Len SAC 1.8 2.1 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.