NBA games

GS @ DEN

NBA Ball Arena ·Final
115–119
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
GS31262830115
DEN33243329119

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DEN) / 10 (GS) games this season
GS away
home DEN
45% 55%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Stephen Curry S 34 24 7 11
Jonathan Kuminga S 29 19 5 2
Brandin Podziemski S 25 13 4 4
Moses Moody 21 13 2 1
Andrew Wiggins S 31 13 3 4
Gary Payton II 14 11 1 2
Trayce Jackson-Davis 22 7 6 2
Buddy Hield 21 6 3 0
Kevon Looney S 25 5 11 5
Kyle Anderson 19 4 6 5
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nikola Jokic S 40 38 10 6
Michael Porter Jr. S 31 22 7 2
Aaron Gordon S 33 15 9 5
Jamal Murray S 34 12 3 7
Christian Braun S 36 11 6 2
Russell Westbrook 23 7 1 5
Peyton Watson 18 7 1 2
Julian Strawther 20 5 1 3
Zeke Nnaji 5 2 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Michael Porter Jr. · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:24 Q1
"Michael Porter Jr. makes 5-foot two point shot (Aaron Gordon assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Michael Porter Jr. DEN
13%
2 Jamal Murray DEN
13%
3 Andrew Wiggins GS
12%
4 Nikola Jokic DEN
12%
5 Christian Braun DEN
12%
6 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS
11%
7 Stephen Curry GS
10%
8 Peyton Watson DEN
9%
9 Brandin Podziemski GS
8%
10 Jonathan Kuminga GS
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
30%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
22%
Jumper
19%
Layup
24%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Nikola Jokic DEN 28.8 12.6 10.5
2 Stephen Curry GS 23.0 5.7 6.5
3 Jamal Murray DEN 20.9 4.2 7.2
4 Michael Porter Jr. DEN 19.8 6.9 3.2
5 Andrew Wiggins GS 18.9 4.7 2.9
6 Christian Braun DEN 16.5 5.1 2.6
7 Aaron Gordon DEN 14.5 5.6 3.7
8 Peyton Watson DEN 12.9 4.7 1.8
9 Jonathan Kuminga GS 12.8 4.3 2.1
10 Russell Westbrook DEN 12.8 4.2 6.6
11 Buddy Hield GS 10.3 2.9 1.6
12 Julian Strawther DEN 8.3 2.6 1.2
13 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS 6.8 5.7 1.4
14 Brandin Podziemski GS 6.6 3.6 2.9
15 Lindy Waters III GS 5.6 2.7 1.2
16 Kyle Anderson GS 5.2 2.6 2.2
17 Kevon Looney GS 5.1 6.6 1.0
18 Moses Moody GS 4.9 2.0 1.0
19 Gary Payton II GS 3.5 2.5 0.9
20 Dario Saric DEN 3.1 2.5 0.9
21 Jalen Pickett DEN 2.9 1.1 1.1
22 Pat Spencer GS 2.8 1.6 1.6
23 Hunter Tyson DEN 2.7 1.6 0.6
24 DeAndre Jordan DEN 2.7 3.1 0.5
25 Zeke Nnaji DEN 1.7 0.9 0.3
26 PJ Hall DEN 1.6 0.6 0.3
27 Gui Santos GS 1.5 0.8 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.