NBA games

SA @ PHX

NBA Mortgage Matchup Center ·Final
93–104
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SA1920322293
PHX29232329104

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHX) / 10 (SA) games this season
SA away
home PHX
39% 61%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Devin Vassell 28 25 2 1
Stephon Castle S 34 16 1 3
Victor Wembanyama S 34 15 13 7
Jeremy Sochan 22 14 12 2
Keldon Johnson 24 10 7 1
Julian Champagnie S 28 9 6 1
Chris Paul S 32 2 8 8
Harrison Barnes S 24 2 2 1
Zach Collins 14 0 2 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Devin Booker S 39 29 9 5
Tyus Jones S 33 16 0 4
Kevin Durant S 16 13 4 2
Royce O'Neale 30 10 6 1
Bradley Beal S 31 10 9 4
Grayson Allen 24 8 3 3
Oso Ighodaro S 28 7 3 2
Mason Plumlee 19 6 6 1
Ryan Dunn 12 3 4 0
Monte Morris 8 2 0 4

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Devin Booker · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:37 Q1
"Devin Booker makes 15-foot step back jumpshot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Devin Booker PHX
11%
2 Jeremy Sochan SA
11%
3 Bradley Beal PHX
10%
4 Stephon Castle SA
9%
5 Kevin Durant PHX
9%
6 Tyus Jones PHX
7%
7 Mason Plumlee PHX
7%
8 Victor Wembanyama SA
7%
9 Grayson Allen PHX
7%
10 Harrison Barnes SA
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
13%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
27%
Jumper
24%
Layup
33%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Devin Booker PHX 25.4 3.6 6.5
2 Victor Wembanyama SA 25.2 10.5 4.4
3 Kevin Durant PHX 24.6 7.0 3.6
4 Bradley Beal PHX 18.5 4.2 3.7
5 Devin Vassell SA 17.1 2.6 3.5
6 Stephon Castle SA 16.5 3.4 5.2
7 Jeremy Sochan SA 16.0 7.2 2.7
8 Tyus Jones PHX 13.4 2.8 7.6
9 Harrison Barnes SA 13.0 5.7 2.0
10 Julian Champagnie SA 12.4 4.8 1.9
11 Chris Paul SA 12.3 3.5 8.0
12 Keldon Johnson SA 12.0 4.6 2.2
13 Grayson Allen PHX 11.6 2.9 1.6
14 Royce O'Neale PHX 8.9 5.1 1.9
15 Josh Okogie PHX 6.9 2.9 0.7
16 Zach Collins SA 6.3 3.7 1.4
17 Ryan Dunn PHX 5.8 3.2 1.0
18 Oso Ighodaro PHX 5.7 4.8 1.2
19 Mason Plumlee PHX 5.5 5.8 1.8
20 Monte Morris PHX 4.7 1.6 1.1
21 Malaki Branham SA 4.6 1.3 1.2
22 Blake Wesley SA 4.5 1.0 1.5
23 Sandro Mamukelashvili SA 4.1 2.8 0.5
24 Charles Bassey SA 3.6 3.9 0.6
25 Bol Bol PHX 3.4 2.4 0.6
26 Damion Lee PHX 3.0 0.7 0.7
27 Sidy Cissoko SA 2.9 1.5 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.