NBA games

MEM @ DAL

NBA American Airlines Center ·Final
116–121
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MEM26313821116
DAL25352239121

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DAL) / 10 (MEM) games this season
MEM away
home DAL
53% 47%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Ja Morant S 31 31 2 4
Desmond Bane S 31 19 3 3
Jaren Jackson Jr. S 29 16 7 2
Santi Aldama 29 15 8 3
Jaylen Wells S 22 10 3 2
Brandon Clarke S 22 8 6 2
Jay Huff 16 8 1 0
Scotty Pippen Jr. 17 5 4 4
Jake LaRavia 11 4 2 1
Marcus Smart 25 0 2 6
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Luka Doncic S 40 37 12 4
P.J. Washington S 38 18 8 7
Dereck Lively II S 32 17 11 3
Spencer Dinwiddie 24 16 1 4
Daniel Gafford 16 11 4 0
Kyrie Irving S 35 10 6 2
Quentin Grimes 20 8 2 1
Klay Thompson S 20 4 2 3
Maxi Kleber 10 0 3 0
Jaden Hardy 4 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jaren Jackson Jr. · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:42 Q1
"Jaren Jackson Jr. makes 22-foot three point jumper (Ja Morant assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Luka Doncic DAL
11%
2 Ja Morant MEM
10%
3 P.J. Washington DAL
9%
4 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM
8%
5 Daniel Gafford DAL
8%
6 Quentin Grimes DAL
8%
7 Brandon Clarke MEM
7%
8 Kyrie Irving DAL
7%
9 Dereck Lively II DAL
7%
10 Desmond Bane MEM
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
10%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
60%
Jumper
12%
Layup
16%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Luka Doncic DAL 28.7 7.1 8.8
2 Kyrie Irving DAL 25.4 4.8 6.5
3 Ja Morant MEM 23.0 4.5 8.7
4 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM 22.5 6.7 2.1
5 P.J. Washington DAL 16.0 9.3 2.9
6 Quentin Grimes DAL 14.8 4.7 2.8
7 Santi Aldama MEM 13.4 6.7 3.1
8 Jaylen Wells MEM 12.7 3.6 2.2
9 Desmond Bane MEM 12.6 6.3 3.9
10 Daniel Gafford DAL 12.6 7.8 1.7
11 Scotty Pippen Jr. MEM 11.5 3.6 4.3
12 Klay Thompson DAL 10.5 3.4 1.6
13 Spencer Dinwiddie DAL 10.0 2.4 3.7
14 Marcus Smart MEM 9.6 2.6 4.4
15 Jaden Hardy DAL 9.6 2.4 1.8
16 Jake LaRavia MEM 8.9 3.9 3.5
17 Dereck Lively II DAL 8.9 7.0 1.9
18 Brandon Clarke MEM 8.2 6.2 1.1
19 Luke Kennard MEM 7.6 2.5 2.2
20 Jay Huff MEM 7.1 2.3 0.9
21 Jazian Gortman DAL 5.1 1.3 1.0
22 Maxi Kleber DAL 4.3 3.5 0.9
23 John Konchar MEM 3.8 2.8 0.9
24 Dwight Powell DAL 3.4 2.8 0.9
25 Olivier-Maxence Prosper DAL 2.9 1.8 0.5
26 Kessler Edwards DAL 2.4 1.0 0.5
27 Markieff Morris DAL 1.6 1.2 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.