NBA games

UTAH @ OKC

NBA Paycom Center ·Final
106133
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
UTAH25252531106
OKC32304031133

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (OKC) / 10 (UTAH) games this season
UTAH away
home OKC
17% 83%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Collin Sexton S 28 17 3 4
Walker Kessler S 36 17 11 0
Keyonte George S 31 16 4 5
John Collins S 31 15 5 2
Johnny Juzang 24 13 0 1
Lauri Markkanen S 31 13 6 2
Brice Sensabaugh 20 6 2 1
Svi Mykhailiuk 12 4 0 1
Isaiah Collier 14 3 1 2
Drew Eubanks 12 2 4 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Williams S 28 28 2 5
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 30 26 6 7
Isaiah Joe 22 19 2 4
Aaron Wiggins 22 16 4 1
Cason Wallace S 29 12 0 4
Dillon Jones 16 8 4 2
Ajay Mitchell 17 5 2 1
Luguentz Dort S 30 5 2 1
Kenrich Williams 13 5 5 1
Isaiah Hartenstein S 22 4 5 6

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jalen Williams · Layup (2 pts) · 11:34 Q1
"Jalen Williams makes two point shot (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Williams OKC
13%
2 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
11%
3 Lauri Markkanen UTAH
10%
4 Collin Sexton UTAH
9%
5 Walker Kessler UTAH
8%
6 Luguentz Dort OKC
8%
7 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC
8%
8 John Collins UTAH
7%
9 Svi Mykhailiuk UTAH
7%
10 Keyonte George UTAH
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
16%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
17%
Jumper
30%
Layup
32%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 30.8 4.3 7.8
2 Jalen Williams OKC 25.3 6.3 6.3
3 John Collins UTAH 21.5 10.4 3.1
4 Lauri Markkanen UTAH 20.3 6.1 2.4
5 Collin Sexton UTAH 18.8 3.3 3.6
6 Keyonte George UTAH 17.5 3.6 5.3
7 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC 14.6 11.0 4.1
8 Walker Kessler UTAH 12.3 11.3 1.4
9 Luguentz Dort OKC 10.0 5.3 2.2
10 Aaron Wiggins OKC 9.0 3.3 1.6
11 Isaiah Joe OKC 8.9 3.0 1.7
12 Brice Sensabaugh UTAH 7.8 2.4 1.1
13 Cason Wallace OKC 7.5 3.8 2.6
14 Svi Mykhailiuk UTAH 7.1 1.3 1.1
15 Kyle Filipowski UTAH 6.7 3.9 1.8
16 Ajay Mitchell OKC 6.1 1.7 1.5
17 Isaiah Collier UTAH 5.7 2.0 3.5
18 Kenrich Williams OKC 5.5 2.6 1.1
19 Drew Eubanks UTAH 5.1 3.8 1.0
20 Johnny Juzang UTAH 4.9 2.7 1.3
21 Dillon Jones OKC 3.7 2.1 1.0
22 Patty Mills UTAH 3.1 0.9 0.9
23 Branden Carlson OKC 1.9 1.3 0.4
24 Adam Flagler OKC 1.9 0.7 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.