NBA games

IND @ TOR

NBA Scotiabank Arena ·Final
111–122
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
IND23253627111
TOR31342829122

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (TOR) / 10 (IND) games this season
IND away
home TOR
17% 83%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyrese Haliburton S 40 30 4 6
Bennedict Mathurin S 37 17 3 1
Myles Turner S 38 16 7 2
Obi Toppin 14 15 9 1
T.J. McConnell 24 14 2 4
Pascal Siakam S 36 13 6 1
Andrew Nembhard S 19 6 0 4
Enrique Freeman 3 0 1 0
Jarace Walker 26 0 2 2
Moses Brown 3 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Scottie Barnes S 36 35 6 9
RJ Barrett S 37 29 9 5
Jakob Poeltl S 36 17 10 4
Ochai Agbaji S 36 13 3 2
Davion Mitchell 26 8 3 3
Jamal Shead 10 6 1 0
Chris Boucher 14 6 2 2
Jonathan Mogbo 15 3 5 2
Jamison Battle 14 3 2 1
Ja'Kobe Walter S 17 2 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Ochai Agbaji · Dunk (2 pts) · 10:54 Q1
"Ochai Agbaji makes dunk (Scottie Barnes assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jakob Poeltl TOR
13%
2 RJ Barrett TOR
12%
3 Pascal Siakam IND
12%
4 Bennedict Mathurin IND
11%
5 Myles Turner IND
10%
6 Scottie Barnes TOR
10%
7 Andrew Nembhard IND
7%
8 Ochai Agbaji TOR
7%
9 Ja'Kobe Walter TOR
7%
10 Tyrese Haliburton IND
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
20%
Free Throw
21%
Jumper
26%
Layup
31%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 RJ Barrett TOR 25.9 6.8 6.9
2 Scottie Barnes TOR 23.8 8.6 7.4
3 Pascal Siakam IND 22.0 6.1 3.7
4 Tyrese Haliburton IND 19.1 3.3 8.7
5 Jakob Poeltl TOR 18.8 11.8 2.3
6 Bennedict Mathurin IND 18.2 6.7 2.4
7 Myles Turner IND 14.7 7.6 1.8
8 T.J. McConnell IND 11.1 3.8 3.9
9 Ochai Agbaji TOR 10.7 4.1 2.3
10 Andrew Nembhard IND 9.4 2.5 4.3
11 Obi Toppin IND 9.1 3.7 1.6
12 Chris Boucher TOR 8.2 4.6 0.9
13 Quenton Jackson IND 8.1 2.6 2.0
14 Davion Mitchell TOR 8.1 2.2 4.9
15 Jarace Walker IND 6.6 4.1 2.0
16 Jamison Battle TOR 6.5 1.8 1.1
17 Ja'Kobe Walter TOR 6.3 3.5 1.3
18 Jonathan Mogbo TOR 5.4 3.8 1.4
19 Ben Sheppard IND 5.3 2.3 1.2
20 Jamal Shead TOR 4.8 1.4 2.2
21 Moses Brown IND 4.0 1.9 0.5
22 Tristen Newton IND 3.8 1.3 1.8
23 Johnny Furphy IND 3.7 1.7 0.7
24 Bruno Fernando TOR 3.2 2.4 1.1
25 Enrique Freeman IND 2.7 1.3 0.6
26 Garrett Temple TOR 1.7 0.7 0.6
27 James Johnson IND 1.3 0.7 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.